Tourism isn’t sizzling during Hawaii’s peak summer season, and the downturn could extend into 2025.

The softness has been present in Hawaii’s visitor industry since the Aug. 8 Maui wildfires, and even in June, Maui’s 22% drop in visitor arrivals and 27% decrease in spending were dragging down the statewide tourism performance, according to preliminary statistics released Tuesday by the state Department of Business, Economic Development and Tourism.

Jack Richards, Pleasant Holidays president and CEO, said it’s been almost a year since the deadly wildfires that destroyed much of Lahaina, yet the dampening continues to affect tourism performance across all islands.

“We’re down double digits to Hawaii for July, August and September,” Richards said. “It’s been a very tough summer. I thought it would improve but it didn’t. It’s cost and the lingering impact of the Maui wildfires. People still aren’t quite sure if now is the time to come out.”

He said bookings for the “festive season,” which includes the Christmas and New Year’s holiday period, are up 2% over 2023, but that’s not saying much, as the 2023 festive season was lackluster. Richards said the end-of-year pickup looks short-lived, with first-quarter 2025 bookings down by double digits.

In comparison, Richards said bookings to other parts of the U.S. such as Florida and California are up double digits along with travel to Asia and Europe, while travel to Mexico is rebounding.

Chris Kam, Omnitrak president and chief operating officer, said overall travel demand from U.S. leisure visitors was slightly down for June, and a lot of people are traveling internationally.

Kam said data from the National Travel and Tourism Office shows “the number of U.S. outbound travelers is up 9% for June versus the prior year, and it’s up 20% over 2019.”

Kam said new data shows the Maui wildfires remain a major contributor to the dampening in Hawaii.

He said data presented by DBEDT at the last Hawaii Tourism Authority board meeting shows that even now about two-thirds of likely Hawaii visitors are aware of the disaster that killed at least 102 people and caused an estimated $5.6 billion in damage.

While the fires did not affect the likelihood of these travelers visiting Hawaii within the next two years for 6 out of 10 people, Kam said, “the issue is that 4 out of 10 is still a big number.”

Arrivals to the Hawaiian Islands in June fell 1.9% year-over-year to 872,620 visitors, according to DBEDT’s preliminary data. Total visitor spending measured in nominal dollars was $1.91 billion, a decrease of 4.4% from June 2023.

“Hawaii has a demand problem and it’s not just on Maui,” Richards said. “We’ve been shocked that the prices haven’t abated more. We’ve even had some resorts in Maui increase their resort fees.”

Results varied across the islands. Arrivals increased 6.3% to 532,915 on Oahu, while spending increased 5.8% to $897.9 million.

Kauai saw visitor arrivals rise 0.8% to 130,923 and spending increase 5.8% to $265.9 million.

On Hawaii island, arrivals fell 1.1% to 156,999; however, spending increased 7.5% to $283.3 million.

On Maui, spending declined to $451.7 million and arrivals fell to 216,065. Molokai arrivals fell 35.1% to 2,478 while spending declined 32.95% to $2 million. Arrivals on Lanai rose 10.2% to 6,372, but spending dropped 15.7% to $11.4 million.

“Overall travel to the Hawaiian Islands was soft for June with total visitors by air decreasing slightly by 1.5% from June 2023,” DBEDT Director James Kunane Tokioka said in a news release. “Domestic visitors arriving by air decreased by 3%, while international visitors arriving by air increased by 8.2% compared to the same month a year ago.”

International arrivals from some markets were helped by the 13th annual Festival of the Pacific Arts and Culture, which took place June 6-16 and allowed Hawaii to showcase its hosting ability to visitors from around the Pacific.

“The Other Major Market Area, which includes most of the visitors from Pacific nations, increased by 3.9% for June when compared to last year,” Tokioka said. “Japan’s recovery continued with 59,874 total visitors from Japan for June, the second-­highest number of visitors for 2024.”

DBEDT reported that total spending was down in every major market except Japan. Per-person-per-day spending was flat among visitors from the U.S. West and East, and down slightly from Japan and more so from Canada, cruise ships and the “all others” category, which includes international markets outside of Japan and Canada.

HTA did see some improvement, however, in resident sentiment toward tourism, which along with spending is one of the key performance indicators outlined in its 2020-2025 strategic plan.

Resident sentiment tracked upward across all major indicators compared with spring 2023, with as many as 56% of survey participants saying tourism brings more benefits than problems, according to DBEDT’s spring 2024 Resident Sentiment Survey, which was conducted by Omnitrak.

Nearly 6 out of 10, or 58%, of Hawaii residents statewide said their views on tourism were affected positively by their awareness of HTA’s pre- and post-arrival visitor communications, stewardship efforts and preservation of natural and cultural resources, regenerative tourism strategies and cultural education and training programs.

Kam said the perceived benefits of tourism’s benefits versus challenges inched upward, also noting that previous concerns such as overcrowding and traffic sank.

“Probably because there are fewer visitors,” he said, adding that such struggles aren’t unique to Hawaii. “They are shooting visitors with water guns in Barcelona.”

Kam said residents now worry more about the industry’s impact on the cost of living, likely because some “people see short-term rentals as taking the available supply of housing and therefore increasing the housing prices.”

He added that people also might not grasp that part of the cost of living is “just inflation.”

Some 67% of residents surveyed said they felt their island is run for visitors at the expense of residents, and 79% indicated their island’s economy is too dependent on tourism.

Still, more residents now feel that tourism is better managed on their island than they did over an extended period of weakening resident sentiment that began in the early 2010s and continued through 2019, the peak year for tourism arrivals, and through COVID-19.

Resident sentiment has been measured since 1988, and Omnitrak fielded the spring survey from March 5 to April 20 across four counties.