Forecasts drawn from the quarterly economic report released last week by the state Department of Business, Economic Development and Tourism (DBEDT) are mixed: Overall projected growth in 2024 is slightly down, but annual growth is expected to return to average next year.

This year’s headwinds include decreased visitor numbers, higher-than-expected inflation and a shrinking labor force — all exacerbated by August’s disastrous Lahaina fire. Statewide, total visitor spending was 5.1% less through April than in 2023. On the plus side, construction employment is at a record high, and April unemployment, at 2.8%, was lower than the U.S. rate of 3.5%.