What early MLB trends should you believe as April turns to May?
As the calendar turns to May, MLB teams and players have made their initial impressions — some surprising, some disappointing, and some exactly what we anticipated. So, what are the April baseball anomalies, and what early results will have staying power? Here are some of my takeaways from the first month of the season, what to believe and what not to believe.
The White Sox have started the season 6-23, the worst record in the American League. On the hitting side, they rank 30th in hits, runs scored and OPS (and they’re tied for 29th in home runs). On the pitching side, they are 29th in team ERA, 23rd in strikeouts and 23rd in batting average against. Their farm system ranks 20th in the game, according to MLB Pipeline. They will finish with the worst record in the AL.
The Rockies are the National League version of the White Sox. On the pitching side, they rank 30th in team ERA, strikeouts and batting average against. Offensively, they are 25th in runs scored despite playing half their games at hitter-friendly Coors Field. They will finish with the worst record in the NL.
The Marlins, at 6-24, have the worst record in MLB after making the postseason last year. Their best four starting pitchers are on the injured list, they didn’t replace the power they lost this offseason when Jorge Soler signed with the Giants in free agency, and they’re a below-average defensive team. First-year president of baseball operations Peter Bendix and manager Skip Schumaker, one of the best in the game, have their work cut out for them.
Before the season, I predicted Dodgers shortstop Mookie Betts would win NL MVP and Yankees right fielder Juan Soto would win AL MVP and my thinking hasn’t changed through the first month, although Orioles shortstop Gunnar Henderson has popped his head into the conversation and said, “Don’t forget about me.” Betts has slashed a staggering .377/.479/.639 with 10 doubles, two triples, six home runs, 29 runs scored and 23 RBIs, and he has eight stolen bases in as many attempts. Soto has posted a .429 on-base percentage with seven home runs and 24 RBIs, while Henderson has batted .289/.352/.632 with 10 homers, 23 RBIs and six steals. Given all three players’ talent, work ethic and the teammates surrounding them, their impressive starts are sustainable and I expect them to be in the running for hardware after the season.
José Abreu has had an incredible career, playing 11 seasons and averaging 30 home runs and 108 RBIs every 162 games. However, the 37-year-old Astros first baseman appears to be slowing down to the point where he might lose his job sooner rather than later. Last year, there were signs of decline as his batting average dipped to .237 (from .304 in his free-agent walk year with the White Sox), but he still hit 18 homers and drove in 90 runs. This year, he’s taken a huge step back, as he’s hitting just .099, going 7-for-71 with no home runs. He’s still a positive leader in the clubhouse, but it looks like he should be a part-time player at this point, playing only against pitchers with lesser stuff if the Astros want to still get production from him. On Tuesday, the Astros are calling up Joey Loperfido, who already has hit 13 home runs at Triple A this season, in a move that could lead to a shakeup at first base, where Abreu and Jon Singleton have split time.
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The Cubs’ acquisition of lefty Shota Imanaga looks like the best value free-agent signing of the offseason after they inked him for two years and $22.5 million in a deal that can grow to approximately $80 million with club options through 2028. Imanaga made five starts in April, going 4-0 with a 0.98 ERA and 0.795 WHIP. Opposing batters are hitting .115 against his four-seam fastball and .235 against his wipeout split-finger pitch. The Dodgers’ signing of Yoshinobu Yamamoto also looks like a huge win even though he hasn’t been as successful and consistent as Imanaga. Still, the 25-year-old righty has impressed, going 2-1 with a 3.54 ERA (2.66 FIP) over six starts while recording 37 strikeouts in 28 innings. In three of his starts, he didn’t give up a run, showing flashes of just how dominant he can be. When Yamamoto’s arsenal is working, he’s been unhittable. It’s only a matter of time before that dominance and more consistency make him a Cy Young Award contender.
Put your seatbelt on when watching Reds shortstop Elly De La Cruz and the Nationals shortstop CJ Abrams, and don’t make the mistake of going to the concession stand or bathroom when they’re at the plate, in the field or on the bases because they are two of the most electric players in the sport right now and you don’t want to miss them hit a homer, steal a base, take an extra base, or make a range play — all while flashing their contagious smiles. De La Cruz has started the year with a .390 on-base percentage, a 170 OPS+, eight homers and a league-leading 18 stolen bases. Abrams is batting .297 with seven homers, six stolen bases and a 188 OPS+. Both players have remarkable athleticism. De La Cruz ranks in the 99th percentile in sprint speed and in 97th percentile in batting run value, according to Statcast, while Adams is in the 98th percentile in sweet-spot percentage and in the 97th percentile in batting run value. I’m excited to see what these two rising stars can produce over the full season.
Several teams believe the DH position is best served by rotating position players to give them a rest while keeping their bats in the lineup. However, there are a couple of DHs who show having a full-time slugger in that role may be the best option. Case in point: Marcell Ozuna of the Braves and Shohei Ohtani of the Dodgers. Ozuna is batting .330 with nine home runs and a majors-leading .650 slugging percentage. His strong start isn’t a surprise considering he belted 40 homers with 100 RBIs last year, but it still stands out. Meanwhile, Ohtani has landed in L.A. and started to put together what could become the best offensive year of his career, batting .347 with seven home runs, 14 doubles, five stolen bases, a .406 OBP and a .635 slug. And yes, both the Braves and Dodgers are in first place, where they belong.
We knew Brewers second baseman Brice Turang was a Gold Glove-caliber fielder, but we didn’t know how much he was going to hit. His April numbers have been eye-opening as he’s slashed .300/.360/.422 with 13 stolen bases in 13 attempts. He’s also hit .328 against fastballs and .273 against breaking balls. I’m not saying he’s going to end up hitting over .300, but he has shown me he can hit .280 and steal 50 bases, so I believe this is the start of a true breakout season.
The Astros are 9-19 and find themselves in last place in the AL West, somehow behind the A’s and Angels in the standings. Everything that could go wrong has gone wrong. So how did they get here? Let’s start with injuries to the starting rotation. They began the season with Justin Verlander, along with several other starting pitchers, on the injured list, followed by IL stints for their next best starters, Framber Valdez and Cristian Javier. Hunter Brown’s sophomore jinx year arrived early as he’s gone 0-4 with a 9.68 ERA over his first five starts. Forced to replace the injured starters, the Astros’ lack of depth showed as JP France went 0-3 with a 7.46 ERA before he was demoted and rookie Spencer Arrighetti showed he wasn’t ready for the big leagues, going 0-3 with a 10.97 ERA. The only surprise bright spot was Ronel Blanco, who has gone 3-0 with a 1.65 ERA. Meanwhile, the best part of their pitching staff was supposed to be their seventh-, eighth- and ninth-inning relievers, but that hasn’t been the case either. Josh Hader, their $95 million closer, has gone 0-2 with a 7.59 ERA. Ryan Pressly, their former closer who now is mostly the eighth-inning man, has a 6.75 ERA and two blown saves. Bryan Abreu, their seventh-inning guy, has a 4.30 ERA over 14 appearances after posting a 1.75 mark last season. Ouch.
However, once Verlander, Valdez, Javier and even Brown settle in by June, along with Blanco, I think we’ll see the first four pitch to their accustomed levels. So will the back of their bullpen. Don’t despair, Astros fans — this is why we play 162 games. I do think the Astros need to upgrade their middle relief options and starting pitching depth to better withstand injuries and poor performances, but they have the right front office to do that in time. I predict by the All-Star break they’ll be back in the AL West race with the Rangers and Mariners, if they can get healthy.
Ronald Acuña Jr., the reigning NL MVP, is batting .255 with only one home run in April. OK, so he had a bad month by his standards, but he’ll still be in the MVP conversation by September. Matt Olson, who last year had 54 home runs and 139 RBIs, is batting .211 with just three homers. Who cares? The Braves are still in first place. Olson, too, will get going in May. Remember how April showers make the garden beautiful in the May sunshine? So will Acuña and Olson!
Corbin Carroll slashed .285/.362/.506 last year with 30 doubles, 10 triples, 25 home runs and 54 stolen bases, winning Rookie of the Year and finishing fifth in NL MVP voting. However, thus far he’s experiencing a sophomore slump, a year of pitchers adjusting and maybe even Mike Trout disease. What I mean by the latter is that pitchers have discovered Carroll doesn’t like pitches at the top of the strike zone and have been able to get him out up there this season. However, like Trout, he’ll learn to foul those off or take them and make pitchers come lower in the zone, where he can dominate. Carroll, 23, is so talented and it’s only a matter of time before he’s back on track. As far as Julio Rodríguez, remember he also got off to a slow start last year, then picked it up significantly in the second half (.971 OPS). He finished with 32 home runs, 103 RBIs and 37 steals. I still expect him to top those numbers this year.
The Guardians are tied for the major-league lead in run differential, but I’m not believing it. Yes, they are 19-9 with a run differential of +46, but they also won eight games against the White Sox and A’s, two of the league’s worst teams, which drove much of that run differential. The Guardians’ start has been impressive and they are a legit contender to win the AL Central, but I think it will be a four-team race to the end, with the White Sox being the only Central team without a chance. The reason I don’t believe in the Guardians’ run differential is not just their schedule, but also their offense. I like the top of their lineup as Steven Kwan and Andrés Giménez can provide traffic on the basepaths and José Ramírez and Josh Naylor can bang them home. However, I don’t think the bottom half of their lineup has enough juice to create the runs they’ll need to be among the leaders in run differential. On the pitching side, I like their young rotation and dominant bullpen, which will give them a chance to win the division. But I still think they need to trade for a right fielder, and think they’re a perfect match with the Orioles in a trade sending a top reliever to Baltimore for one of their right fielders.
The defending NL champions are 13-17 and sit fourth in the NL West, 5 1/2 games behind the Dodgers. I still think they’ll finish second in the division and secure a wild-card spot in the playoffs. The Diamondbacks have dealt with a lot of injuries, including to Merrill Kelly (shoulder strain) and Eduardo Rodriguez (lat injury), their biggest free-agent signing, who hasn’t even thrown a pitch for them yet. Jordan Montgomery, who signed in late March, has been limited to just two starts in April (he was scheduled to make his third start Tuesday), and their closer, Paul Sewald (oblique strain), has been on the IL for more than a month. From a position player perspective, Corbin Carroll has had a rough start (.191 batting average with one home run), starting shortstop Gerardo Perdomo (right meniscus tear) is on the IL, and catcher Gabriel Moreno is batting .234 with no homers. Playing deep into October often results in teams getting off to slow starts the following year, as you’re seeing to a degree with the Rangers (15-14). I’m not worried about Arizona — or Texas for that matter — and will be surprised if we’re not covering them in the postseason come October.
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This article originally appeared in The Athletic.
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