Hawaii auto sales are projected to keep softening in 2020 as they appear headed for a third straight year of declines.

New vehicle registrations are forecast to slip 2.5% this year, according to a report scheduled for release today by Hawaii Auto Outlook. The dour outlook comes after new registrations in the state slumped 8.4% in the fourth quarter and finished the year down 5.4%. Registrations now have fallen year over year for six straight quarters.

“The gradual market slowdown that has been ongoing for the past three years should extend into 2020,” Jeffrey Foltz, editor of Hawaii Auto Outlook, wrote in the report, produced for the Hawaii Automobile Dealers Association. “Affordability is currently the biggest drag on new vehicle sales. Vehicle prices are increasing, interest rates are likely to hold steady, and household incomes are struggling to keep pace.”

Foltz noted, though, that the 53,458 new registrations in 2019 exceeded 50,000 units for the sixth straight year, an achievement that he calls “a respectable total for the Hawaii market.” Foltz is projecting new vehicle registrations in 2020 to dip to 52,100. The last time new vehicle registrations fell beneath the 50,000 threshold was in 2013 at 48,705.

Hawaii registrations in the fourth quarter fell to 12,177 from 13,293 in the year-earlier period. In the last six quarters, auto sales have been down year over year 8.4%, 0.5%, 8.1%, 4.5%, 1.1% and 12.6%, respectively. The last time auto sales were up was in the second quarter of 2018 when they gained 1.2%.

Overall, new vehicle registrations in the state last year were down 3,024 from 56,482 in 2018. All four island markets also declined. Kauai auto sales plunged 8%, Maui auto sales fell 5.7%, Oahu auto sales dropped 5.2% and Hawaii island auto sales declined 4.9%. Nationally, auto sales fell 2.6% in 2019 from the previous year.

Light trucks (which include vans, SUVs and pickups) maintained their large market share in Hawaii over cars in 2019 with 69.2% of consumers opting for the larger vehicles because of more visibility and additional room for storage. That is up from a 67.9% market share in 2018 and 48.7% in 2012. Only 30.8% of auto buyers purchased cars last year.

While new vehicle registrations can be representative of auto sales, the two don’t always align because a buyer can purchase a vehicle one month and register it in another month. The data are based on county Department of Motor Vehicles registrations.

Toyota was the best-selling brand in Hawaii last year with a 26.6% market share, followed by Honda at 14.6%, Nissan at 8.6%, Ford at 6.9% and Chevrolet at 5.6%.

The 11 brands in Hawaii with increases in 2019 were, in order, Tesla, Volvo, BMW, Lexus, Ram, Mitsubishi, Volkswagen, Subaru, Ford, Jeep and Acura. Buick had the largest decrease.

The Toyota Corolla was the best-selling car in the state market in 2019 and was followed by the Tesla Model 3 and the Toyota Camry. The Toyota Tacoma was the light-truck leader with the Toyota 4Runner and the To­yota RAV4 placing second and third, respectively.

State registrations of hybrid and electric cars and trucks increased 28% last year, while the overall market share was down.