An expansive new climate study has linked the difference between Atlantic and Pacific ocean temperatures to drought conditions and the potential for wildfires in the southwestern United States.

The study, published in the July 27 online edition of the journal Scientific Reports, was co-authored by former University of Hawaii oceanography professor Axel Timmermann, now the director of the Institute for Basic Science Center for Climate Physics and distinguished professor at Pusan National University in South Korea.

“Our results document that a combination of processes is at work,” Timmermann said in a release. “Through an ensemble modeling approach, we were able to show that without anthropogenic effects (those caused by human activity), the droughts in the southwestern United States would have been less severe. By prescribing the effects of man-made climate change and observed global ocean temperatures, our model can reproduce the observed shifts in weather patterns and wildfire occurrences.”

In particular, the study shows that when the Atlantic is warm and the Pacific relatively cold, the risk of drought and wildfire in the Southwest increases.