In the days leading up to an event as large and important as the Hawaiian Canoe Racing Association State Championship regatta, outrigger canoe paddlers and supporters are usually anxious to see who will rise to the occasion and show up to compete.

However, as the nearly two-week-long saga surrounding Keehi Lagoon continues to unfold following an inundation of natural debris and man-made trash and waste via Tropical Storm Darby, the story at today’s state races may indeed revolve around who won’t be racing.

Entering this week, nearly 3,500 paddlers representing 53 clubs from six islands and six outrigger canoe paddling organizations were planning on competing in the event’s 41 races ranging in length from ¼ to 1½ miles. However, after news broke Thursday that the Keehi Lagoon waters were cleared for use, the state Department of Health essentially washed its hands of the murky mess by issuing an indefinite warning and posting signs urging caution in the water because bacteria levels remained high, and illnesses or infection could arise via exposure.

That not-so-confident “all clear” statement was not enough to encourage some teams to compete today, and as of Friday afternoon, at least seven clubs from Oahu had already pulled out of the competition due to safety concerns. Oahu Hawaiian Canoe Racing Association clubs Hui Nalu, Lanikai, Outrigger, New Hope and Ewa Pu‘uloa Outrigger as well as Na ‘Ohana O Na Hui Wa‘a members Na Keiki O Ka Mo‘i and Manu O Ke Kai would have accounted for roughly 37 percent of the regatta field (at least 156 crews of the 570 entered when lanes were assigned), but all decided to stay out of the water.

“Paddlers have to decide in any situation if they feel safe going into the water,” said HCRA President Walter Vierra. “(Prior to the brown-water advisory being lifted), the uncertainty had been building to an uncomfortable level. Now, we can take a deep breath and focus on having a good time with a full day of racing.”

Lanikai coach John Foti let his club and supporters know about the team’s decision to step away from the state races via a message on Lanikai’s Facebook page Friday morning: “I regret to inform you that Lanikai Canoe Club will NOT be participating in the State Race this Saturday at Keehi Lagoon. All indications from the science community and infectious disease experts concur that holding a race … could (pose) a serious health risk.”

Hawaiian Canoe Club of Maui qualified 38 crews for the state competition – the second-highest mark among all participating teams, behind only Kailua (39) – and is the favorite to claim a fourth consecutive title and 13th state crown in 16 years. Hawaiian has dominated the competition over multiple generations as the dynastic club has won the Maui County Hawaiian Canoe Association championship for 31 consecutive years (like OHCRA, this year’s MCHRA championship regatta was canceled due to Darby and no championship was awarded).

If Saturday’s results follow a recent trend, Hawaiian will again be the team to beat thanks to its unparalleled success across the board, from its youth paddlers to seasoned veterans. In the 2009, 2011, 2013 and 2015 state championship regattas held at Hilo Bay, Hanakao‘o Beach (Lahaina), Hanalei Bay (Kauai) and again in Hilo, Hawaiian tallied comfortable victories with winning margins of 60, 59, 24 and 31 points.

In the 2008, 2010 and 2012 editions of the state regatta – all of which were held at Keehi Lagoon – Lanikai won the first two instances by a combined four points and shared the title with Kailua four years ago. In 2014, when the state championships were last held in Keehi Lagoon, Hawaiian broke through with a 48-point win over runner-up Kailua.

“We were hearing word that other clubs were dropping out and my phone was blowing up … then when I asked if Hawaiian was still coming, I heard ‘Hank, they’re already on the plane.’ I said ‘That’s it, we have to race,” said Kailua coach Hank Leandro. “I can’t see dropping out of a race after investing so much time, effort and money all season.

“I consulted with one of the state officials after they lifted the brown-water advisory and he basically said that the levels of bacteria in the water are high, but not higher than what is ‘normal’ for Keehi Lagoon, and what we’ve been racing in all year. I love this sport and we’re here to compete.”

Lanikai’s absence, as well as the void left by three-time defending OHCRA champion Hui Nalu and a rebuilt Outrigger squad, make Kailua the lone Oahu club left to square off with Hawaiian for a realistic shot at the state crown.

“We qualified 39 crews, but by doing that, some of the crews are seeded lower as we spread our talent out a bit. Outrigger, Lanikai and Hui Nalu would have helped us by taking some points away from Hawaiian,” Leandro said. “Hawaiian has a lot of top-seeded crews, so they’re going to be tough to beat. Also, our club may be diluted a bit as some paddlers have chosen not to race” due to health and safety concerns.

For Vierra, the uncertainty surrounding the use of Keehi Lagoon leading up to the state championships signals the need for the community, including city officials (who have jurisdiction over the beach park and shoreline) and state agencies (who monitor water quality and safety) to devise a long-term solution for one of the state’s – and the world’s – most heavily used paddling venues.

“We’ll get past this situation, and we have to remember that the water (in Keehi Lagoon) wasn’t pristine to begin with,” Vierra said of the waterway that hosts summer regatta races, keiki events and high school competitions and practices year round. “Perhaps we can look into ways to improve the water quality and surrounding area. From the HCRA’s perspective, we only race there once every two years, but a lot of different groups utilize Keehi Lagoon.”