A new report from the National Weather Service predicts the strong El Nino that brought a record number of hurricanes, huge winter surf and a dry winter to Hawaii should begin to end in late spring or early summer.

“All models indicate that El Nino will weaken,” the Climate Prediction Center said last week. El Nino is the above-average warming of water around the equator. The ocean there is likely to return to average temperatures, and chances are increasing for La Nina, cooler-than-average ocean temperatures, to develop by fall.

“It (El Nino) is beginning to weaken, and we’re expecting it to lose its grip on our weather going into the summer,” said Derek Wroe, a meteorologist with the Honolulu office of the National Weather Service.

For Hawaii the end of El Nino likely means below-normal rainfall will continue and drought conditions are likely to worsen over the summer.

“There might be periods of rain here and there, but we’re expecting it (rainfall) to remain below normal and worsen over the summer,” Wroe said.

It’s still too early to say how neutral or La Nina conditions might affect the upcoming hurricane season, which officially starts June 1, Wroe said.

However, “the chances of another active (hurricane) season like the one we saw (in 2015) are not likely,” he said.

Most residents are unlikely to notice if La Nina develops because its impact on Hawaii’s weather is not as dramatic as El Nino, Wroe said.

“The effects of La Nina are not as clearly defined,” he said.