WASHINGTON » Republicans’ clear shot at winning control of the Senate is attracting tens of millions of dollars from GOP-allied outside groups eager to spend on a surer bet than a White House race with a resurgent President Barack Obama and an unsettled GOP field.

Republicans need to capture four Demo­cratic seats to grab the majority and Democrats have all but conceded one — Nebraska — where Sen. Ben Nelson decided against a third-term bid in the heavily GOP state. Control of the Senate will hinge on tight races in Massachusetts and Nevada, where Demo­crats see their best chances of unseating two of the newest Republican senators, Scott Brown and Dean Heller; Montana and Missouri, where Demo­crats Jon Tester and Claire McCaskill won narrowly in 2006; and open Demo­cratic seats in Virginia and Wisconsin, according to Republicans, Demo­crats, campaign consultants and lobbyists.

By the numbers, the odds heavily favor the GOP; Demo­crats are defending 23 seats, including six open seats and one independent, to the Republicans’ 10.

"Republicans are well-positioned to pick up Senate seats, and the message from our candidates will be a simple one: If you want a check-and-balance on the Obama agenda and to restore fiscally responsible, pro-jobs policies in Washington, then you can start with a Republican-controlled Senate," Sen. John Cor­nyn, R-Texas, chairman of the National Republican Senatorial Committee, said in a statement.

But eight months to Election Day, Demo­crats are expressing more optimism about their prospects of keeping the majority. Obama’s steadily improving standing with the electorate, signs of a healthier economy and housing market, and the lack of clarity in the highly divisive GOP presidential field are energizing Demo­crats. The current Senate breakdown is 51 Demo­crats, 47 Republicans and two independents who caucus with the Demo­crats.

"I know when I took this job a year ago, most people felt it was really mission impossible, that the economic climate, the number of folks that we had up, was going to make it virtually impossible," said Sen. Patty Murray, D-Wash., chairwoman of the Demo­cratic Senatorial Campaign Committee. "I think that has changed dramatically in a year. Obviously it is still a tough climate, we have a lot of races, but we have really seen Demo­crats doing well in their individual states."

Obama’s deep-pocketed campaign and its expected spending in battleground states such as Nevada, Virginia, New Mexico, Ohio and Wisconsin are certain to lift Demo­cratic candidates down ballot. The respective campaign committees also have the money to boost their nominees, with the Demo­crats reporting $15.4 million cash on hand at the end of February and the Republicans $13.4 million.

The Democrats will need it — and more — as groups like the U.S. Chamber of Commerce and American Crossroads are spending millions earlier than ever on high-priced television ads.

The Chamber is running ads in eight Senate races — Ohio, Montana, Wisconsin, Virginia, Indiana, Hawaii, Missouri and North Dakota — and 12 House races that hit more than 40 media markets, including the expensive Washington region. Republicans and Demo­crats estimate the buy at $10 million; the Chamber will only say eight figures but does describe the effort as unprecedented in its 100-year history.

FIGHT FOR THE SENATE

Democrats narrowly control the Senate — 51-47 with two independents who caucus with the Demo­crats — and Republicans are upbeat about their chances of seizing control in November. Here’s a look at the top races.

ENDANGERED INCUMBENTS

The Senate’s two most senior Republicans — Indiana’s Dick Lugar and Utah’s Orrin Hatch — are facing the toughest races of their long careers.

Hatch must survive a GOP state convention on April 21, and tea partyers have targeted him over his vote for the Wall Street bailout in 2008.  

Lugar is under siege from FreedomWorks, the anti-tax Club for Growth and the Tea Party Express, which complain about his vote to raise the nation’s borrowing authority.

MARQUEE MATCHUPS

Massachusetts Republican Scott Brown faces consumer advocate Elizabeth Warren. Nevada Republican Dean Heller faces House Rep. Shelley Berkley, who has the backing of Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid.

TARGETED DEMOCRATS

Missouri Sen. Clare McCaskill and Montana Sen. Jon Tester are both facing strong GOP challenges in states that went for Republican presidential nominee John McCain in 2008.

OPEN SEATS

The GOP is trying to portray Rep. Tammy Baldwin as too liberal for Wisconsin’s open seat. Her Republican challenger will be decided Aug. 14.

Virginia pits Democrat and former Gov. Tim Kaine against former Sen. George Allen.

WILD CARDS

When Democratic Sen. Kent Conrad announced he would not seek another term, Republicans and some Demo­crats immediately put North Dakota in the GOP column. But former Attorney General Heidi Heitkamp’s criticism of extreme Washington politicians has resonated in the state. Her GOP rival is Rep. Rick Berg, the state’s lone congressman. The flip side of Republican-leaning North Dakota is Hawaii. President Barack Obama is hugely popular in his native state, but Republicans are hoping former Gov. Linda Lingle will benefit from ticket splitting between former Rep. Ed Case and current Rep. Mazie Hirono.

Source: Associated Press