Strength in the tourism industry will help Hawaii’s economy grow modestly this year, but the growth rate will remain below the state’s long-term average, according to a forecast released by state officials Wednesday.
Visitor arrivals and spending will be slightly higher this year than previously forecast, while overall wage and salary jobs will be a touch lower, the state Department of Business, Economic Development and Tourism reported in its quarterly economic outlook.
State gross domestic product, the broadest measure of economic activity in Hawaii, is forecast to rise by 1.8 percent this year and 2 percent in 2013 after adjusting for inflation. That is unchanged from DBEDT’s previous forecast issued in November.
The GDP forecast represents an improvement from the economic contraction that occurred during the 2008-09 recession. However, the expected growth rates are still below Hawaii’s 2.5 percent annual average GDP growth over the past decade.
DBEDT is forecasting visitor arrivals and spending to increase in 2012 by 4.4 percent and 6.4 percent, respectively. Those estimates are up from projected increases of 3.4 percent and 5.6 percent delivered by DBEDT in November.
Total wage and salary jobs, meanwhile, are forecast to rise by 1.5 percent this year and 1.7 percent in 2013. Those forecasts are down from increases of 1.6 percent and 1.8 percent that DBEDT issued in November.
"Moderate but steady growth is being reflected in most of our key economic indicators," said Richard Lim, DBEDT director. "So we feel that the state is still on the right course for economic recovery."
Lim cited a nearly 5 percent increase in projected air seats to Hawaii during the first four months of the year, along with an increase in state tax collections and a drop in unemployment insurance claims as evidence the economy is on the mend. But there are risks to the forecast, including a possible recession in European economies, federal government budget cuts and uncertainties surrounding the Honolulu rail project, Lim said.
The DBEDT forecast echoes much of what the University of Hawaii Economic Research Organization reported two weeks ago in its quarterly outlook. However, that report was slightly more optimistic on state GDP, projecting growth of 2.3 percent in 2012 and 3.3 percent in 2013 after adjusting for inflation.
