The projected cost of the city’s troubled East Kapolei-to-Ala Moana rail project has now moved above the $10 billion mark.

Numbers provided to a Honolulu Authority for Rapid Transportation committee by its staff Thursday showed $832 million more in expenses than the most recent previous estimate.

That jacks up the construction budget for the project to $9.13 billion, excluding approximately $1 billion in financing costs.

The escalating costs come when the latest forecasts by top economists show that the impacts to the state economy from the COVID-19 pandemic might lead to an estimated $450 million drop in anticipated excise tax revenues for the project, providing further funding woes.

The previous forecast was $8.3 billion without financing costs, $9.2 billion including financing. When the Federal Transit Administration agreed to fund $1.55 billion of the project in late 2012, the project was estimated to cost $4.9 billion before financing costs, $5.2 billion including financing costs.

The HART Project Oversight Committee was also told by staff members that they now expect the project to be fully completed in October 2026, four months later than a previous June 2026 forecast.

Meanwhile, the HART Government Affairs, Audit and Legal Affairs Committee voted Thursday to recommend that its full board instruct Executive Director Andrew Robbins to halt moving forward with the procurement process for a public-private partnership, or P3, vendor to complete the last segment of the project, despite Robbins’ concerns that doing so could add even more to rail costs and further delays.

The full board will likely vote on the committee’s recommendation at its next regularly scheduled meeting Oct. 27.

Members of the Project Oversight Committee were given an explanation of the revised estimates by Nate Meddings, the agency’s project controls director.

Much of the cost increases come from construction of the guideway and stations in the city center portion of the project, as well as utility relocations through that segment, Meddings said. Professional services costs are also on the rise, due in large part to the delays.

HART’s inability to complete relocation of utility lines through the Dillingham Boulevard segment is partly because the city Department of Planning and Permitting won’t grant variances for the work due to incomplete design work.

Committee Chairman Glenn Nohara noted that an independent project management oversight study suggested the timetable should also include a 500-day schedule contingency period.

The Government Affairs Committee’s recommendation to the full board to withdraw from the P3 process comes on the heels of Mayor Kirk Caldwell’s decision late last month to do the same. The Caldwell administration and HART were expected to move forward together on procuring a P3 partner because the plan calls for the private entity to be involved with project construction, HART’s main focus, as well as operations of the rail line, a responsibility of the city Department of Transportation Services.

Federal Transit Administration officials have been withholding the release of $744 million in promised funding for the project until they are satisfied the city has a clear plan to complete the project, and securing a P3 partner was expected to resolve much of that uncertainty. FTA officials have told HART that $250 million of that amount will be lost to the city if they are not satisfied with a revised funding plan by Dec. 31.

Caldwell, in rejecting the P3 process, said he’s skeptical a private-partner vendor could minimize the final cost of the project, and instead prefers a more traditional design-build model.

Robbins argued Thursday that he believes a P3 agreement can be reached in the coming weeks, while moving back to a design-build approach would set back the planning process by months. Robbins told the Honolulu Star-Advertiser late Thursday he has been advised by state procurement officials that HART can move forward on negotiating with the bidders without the Caldwell administration’s participation.

Even if a P3 contract is not awarded, HART can engage in “post-initial proposal” discussions that would yield more cost details that could be used to present a plan to the FTA, Robbins said. “What we’ve received so far is just preliminary proposals. … We need to talk to (the bidders), engage with them.”

Robbins and board members voiced frustration that procurement laws require bid proposals to be kept confidential until one of the vendors is selected, since the bids, which were accepted in July, could provide cost details that can be used to persuade the FTA to release its funding. He blamed the Caldwell administration for the delays because it would not join HART in discussions with P3 bid finalists.

Robbins stressed that the Government Affairs Committee’s decision to halt the P3 process is not final and that the ultimate decision lies with the full HART board.

HART Government Affairs Committee Chairman Terrence Lee said after the vote that the consensus of committee members was “that HART must make a presentation to the FTA on how the final portion of the rail project will be built, before Thanksgiving, that is supported by the city administration in order to maximize the odds that the FTA will extend the deadline on such funding.”

While he proposed that a subcommittee be set up to learn more about the bids, something staff attorneys told the committee was possible, other committee members thought it would waste valuable time, Lee said. As a result, “a motion was then made to recommend to the full board that it direct Andy to cancel the P3 procurement, and that motion passed.”

Lee said he disagrees with Robbins that HART can proceed with selecting a P3 partner without the Caldwell administration’s participation.

Nohara said he’s also troubled by the situation. “My question is, Can we even award a contract (to a P3 vendor) if a bid exceeds the budget that we have?” he said.

What’s more, Lee is worried the new, higher project costs and delayed opening will further jeopardize FTA funding.

Like Lee, Nohara believes Robbins’ staff needs to quickly come up with a plan that would be amenable to the Caldwell administration so that a unified front can be presented to the FTA.