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Editorial: Reopen gradually, but also steadily

Coming off a monthlong reset, the framework for Honolulu’s new plan to curb COVID-19 spread sensibly stresses reopening at a more conservative pace — one in which opportunity for month-to-month gains through the rest of the year hinge on two criteria: the number of daily cases reported and test positivity rate.

Flanked by supportive business-community leaders and state Health Department officials, Mayor Kirk Caldwell on Tuesday rolled out a detailed plan, set to get underway today with the reopening of many businesses and easing of restrictions that limit gatherings, such as at parks and beaches, to groups of five. Much of that brings welcome relief.

The fervent hope is that, even given the pandemic’s ongoing challenges, this plan will guide us to a thriving new normal. It can serve as a realistic best-shot to effectively balance competing public health and economic priorities.

Defending the plan’s approach, Caldwell said, “We didn’t want to repeat what we did the first time, where we rushed to the finish line, opening up almost everything within the first three months.” Clearly, in the aftermath of the initial stay-at-home/work-from-home order, success in lowering coronavirus cases was stymied by glaring complacency in personal responsibility.

Moving forward — six months after the first set of COVID restrictions were imposed — requires accepting there’s no going back to the old normal. Further loosening of restrictions hangs in large part on our ability to hold the line with mask-wearing, physical distancing and other safety protocols.

Soon, the effort to prevent rising infection rates that can quickly strain the state’s health care system will be further challenged as the state launches a pre-travel testing program, opening the door to a likely influx of trans-Pacific travelers. What’s more, willingness to shoulder long-term personal responsibility is needed to help public schools bring more students back to campus grounds this fall.

Caldwell rightly described the plan as “transparent and forward-leading” in its structure, which features a four-tiered spectrum: Tier 1 represents a high level of COVID-19 community spread, while Tier 4 represents a low level that’s easily handled by the health care system, thereby allowing the least-restrictive access to businesses, activities and various gatherings.

The starting point is Tier 1, where we’ll remain for at least four consecutive weeks, regardless of even bang-up gains in cases counts and positivity rates. To advance to Tier 2, the city must record at least two consecutive weeks of data that meet the criteria for advancing to Tier 2: a seven-day average case count of between 50 and 100, and a seven-day average test positivity rate of between 2.5% and 5%.

While the city can move forward only one tier at a time, a sustained spike in infections can prompt a retreat to a lower tier; this slow-and-steady strategy is mapped out online, at oneoahu.org.

It’s encouraging that the Honolulu plan is based on a four-tier California model that is making headway in lifting restrictions as that state, too, tries for a second time to recover from the devastating impact COVID-19 has had on business. Its earlier effort to reopen more quickly backfired with a surge in cases and hospitalizations in late spring and early summer.

Compared with Honolulu’s first reopening try, this one benefits from more clarity in how to guard against community spread. It remains unclear when a vaccine will be widely available, and even when at the ready, it will likely serve as only partial shield. And that underscores the need for layered tactics, including the city’s plan for data-driven vigilance in COVID-19 caseload management.

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