LAS VEGAS >> At the roulette table, there is a “scoreboard” that shows the previous winning numbers.
But that is a sucker’s gimmick.
No matter how many times, say, red has hit, the odds remain at 48.7% red will hit on the next spin. And the next spin.
Along the same thinking, the Hawaii football team’s recent history — five consecutive losses at Sam Boyd Stadium — should have no bearing on today’s road game against UNLV.
Since the last meeting in Las Vegas, in 2017, the Rainbow Warriors have switched the offensive base — reincorporating the run-and-shoot concepts — and added four new starting receivers. The Warriors also have added analytics to their game plan.
The Warriors have joined the widespread trend of using mathematical data as a resource. Analytics can show the options of certain fourth-down situations, which also will help in what plays to call on third down. The final decision, of course, rests with head coach Nick Rolovich, who calls the plays. Analytics are an advancement of the play charts head coaches have been carrying since Bear Bryant was a cub. But numbers or gut feeling?
“The analytics and my gut match up a lot,” Rolovich said. “They seem to align.”
It also might be why the Warriors went for it on fourth-and-1 from their 35 while trailing 17-7 in the second quarter against Boise State. The Warriors lost the ball on downs that time, but they have successfully converted on 62% of their fourth-down plays this season. In comparison, opponents are 35% on fourth down. The Warriors have completed 69.2% of their fourth-down passes; opponents are at 33% on those throws.
Last week, Rolovich made an admittedly difficult choice when he started second-year freshman Chevan Cordeiro over Cole McDonald, who had started 21 games the past two seasons and is among the statistical leaders in the Mountain West. Cordeiro responded by accounting for five touchdowns — three on passes, two on scrambles — in a 42-40 victory over San Jose State.
Rolovich continues to praise both quarterbacks, and has expressed confidence the Warriors can win with either Cordeiro or McDonald. When asked to pinpoint Cordeiro’s talent, Rolovich said: “the best word to describe him is ‘sharp.’ He’s sharp with his movements. He’s sharp with his decisions. He’s sharp with his accuracy.”
Both quarterbacks are effective runners. McDonald, who is 6-4 and 220 pounds, is averaging 7.5 yards per non-sack rush. Cordeiro, at 6 feet 1 and 190 pounds, has attained first downs on 50% of his third-down scrambles. “He’s tough,” Rolovich said of Cordeiro. “You don’t have to be big to be tough. But he’s got determination when he runs that’s pretty evident.”
Last week, the Warriors rotated J.R. Hensley and Michael Eletise at left guard in the second half. “We were able to play better in the fourth quarter, harder in the fourth quarter, with both guys rotating in,” offensive line coach Mark Weber said. “It makes J.R. stronger in the fourth quarter. (Eletise is) a good player, and he deserves to play, too.”
The game has separate importance to the teams. The Warriors (6-4 overall, 3-3 in the Mountain West) can be bowl eligible for the third time in Rolovich’s four seasons as head coach. The Rebels will be playing in their second-to-last game in Sam Boyd Stadium. The Rebels will play in Allegiant Stadium, which will be completed in 2020.
“We’re ready to get after it,” UNLV linebacker Gabe McCoy said. “We’re ready to pull the team together, and bring the W back to to Vegas, and send Sam Boyd (Stadium) out a winner.”