Fewer hurricanes expected as El Nino fades

Hawaii might not to see as many hurricanes as initially forecast, state climatologist Pao-Shin Chu said Thursday. A satellite photo, above, made available by NOAA shows cloud patterns over the Western Hemisphere.

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Hawaii’s state climatologist said Thursday he expects the Central Pacific to experience fewer hurricanes than what was originally predicted for the season.

Pao-Shin Chu, who is also a University of Hawaii-Manoa meteorology professor, said his forecast follows Thursday’s announcement by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration that the current El Nino in the Pacific Ocean has ended and neutral conditions have returned.

El Nino, which is the warming of the tropical Pacific Ocean, a phenomenon that affects weather across the globe, typically enhances hurricane activity in the Pacific, Chu said.

With El Nino conditions expected to persist into the fall, the Central Pacific Hurricane Center in May predicted a 70% chance of above-normal tropical cyclone activity — or five to eight storms — during the hurricane season from June to November.

Now that El Nino has fizzled, Chu said he expects a hurricane season closer to the basin’s norm of four to five tropical depressions, named storms and hurricanes.

The Central Pacific already has seen two tropical cyclones this season, Hurricane Erick and Tropical Storm Flossie. Erick, a major hurricane with maximum winds of 130 mph, churned to the south of the islands, while Flossie weakened as it approached Hawaii.

“Maybe we won’t see as many hurricanes,” Chu said. “It would be a good blessing for Hawaii.”

On the other hand, he said, it only takes one hurricane to create the kind of devastation that could have a lasting effect.

August and September are peak months of the Central Pacific hurricane season.

While the transition to neutral conditions is viewed as good news for Hawaii, it’s a different story in the Atlantic, where El Nino is known to suppress hurricane activity.

Forecasters at NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center on Thursday said the likelihood of an above-normal Atlantic hurricane season has increased to 45% — up from 30% from the outlook issued in May.

The number of predicted storms is also greater with NOAA now forecasting up to 17 named storms. On average the Atlantic hurricane season generates 12 named storms, of which six become hurricanes, including three major hurricanes.

Chu said the end of El Nino also may be a welcome sign for winter and spring in Hawaii. El Nino usually brings drought to the islands, he said, but rainfall now may be more plentiful.

Correction: Hawaii state climatologist Pao-Shin Chu said the Central Pacific likely would see fewer hurricanes now that El Nino has ended. The photo caption in an earlier version of this story, and in Friday’s print edition, incorrectly attribute that forecast to NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center.