Each year under the auspices of the U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development (HUD), Partners in Care conducts a Point in Time census count of homeless individuals on Oahu who are currently placed in shelters (sheltered population) as well as those currently living in places not intended for human habitation, such as sidewalks, storefronts, abandoned buildings, parks, beaches and cars (unsheltered population). Representing the interests of 54 coalition members, Partners in Care ensures there is outreach to those in need during the survey.

According to HUD’s regulations, the Point in Time count should take place on a single night during the last 10 days of January. The core intent is to generate a basic snapshot, not provide definitive numbers. As part of its relationship with HUD, Partners in Care also oversees the allocation process for $9.5 million in federal funding, manages a comprehensive data base, and administers a housing referral process for homeless individuals and families.

Partners in Care has just finished sorting and analyzing the data from last month’s census count, and here today, we share a broad overview of the survey’s findings. We believe it important to keep the public informed about the general trends defining homelessness across our communities.

The first and most basic finding from our 2019 snapshot survey shows a 4 percent decrease in the overall homelessness rate in comparison to 2018 (4,311 this year versus 4,495 last year). This aggregate figure combines survey numbers for the homeless sheltered and unsheltered populations. It is the second year in a row that the Point in Time Count’s overall homeless numbers have declined.

In order to better understand the context behind this overall 4 percent decline, it is helpful to break out the sheltered and unsheltered figures from the aggregate. By doing so we see that the overall decrease can be attributed to a significant drop in the sheltered homeless population, from 2,350 in 2018 to 1,910 this year. When assessing those numbers, however, we also noted that Waianae’s Ulu Ke Kukui transitional shelter closed in October. This closure removed more than 300 family shelter beds, thus creating a disproportionate impact on the survey. It is unclear whether the magnitude of this drop represents a permanent data point or a temporary anomaly.

At the same time, our data also reveal a substantial increase in the number of unsheltered individuals, from 2,145 in 2018 to 2,401. Once again, context is important. It is possible this increase is due to Partners in Care’s ability to mobilize over 600 volunteers to assist in the count, a significant increase from previous years. Having more volunteers meant we covered more ground than ever before. In Waianae, for example, volunteers were able to reach many individuals who indicated they had never been counted before.

During its survey planning process, Partners in Care sought the mana‘o of dozens of key Oahu stakeholders. The goals was to create as efficient a process as possible despite the survey’s time limitations — limitations that mean there is a statistically significant margin for error hard-baked into the mandated snapshot design. It’s important to understand that the final census numbers reveal trends and offer generalized points of comparison; they are not intended to provide a 100 percent accurate count of Oahu’s homeless population.

Over the next two months we will be analyzing the data in more depth before issuing a detailed final report, which will include targeted regional and sub-population breakdowns. That said, our initial findings suggest that current homeless programs and interventions are making a positive difference. But it’s also clear that there is still a long road ahead of us.