Being an early-season Heisman Trophy favorite is a lot like being a projected No. 1 NFL Draft pick. It invites the most microscopic examination and over-analysis.
The slightest wobble, real or imagined, alters perceptions.
Which is what we have seen for the first time this season in Alabama quarterback Tua Tagovailoa’s out-in-front candidacy for the top award in college athletics.
All the Saint Louis School graduate did for the unbeaten and No. 1-ranked Crimson Tide was complete 12 of 22 passes for 265 yards, three touchdowns and, of course, no interceptions, in a 39-10 thumping of Missouri Saturday.
Had he not “retweaked” his right knee and exited in the third quarter, as coach Nick Saban put it, Tagovailoa would have undoubtedly had his now accustomed 300-yard-plus outing and who knows how many more touchdowns.
But because he was sidelined early, it allowed his closest pursuers, Ohio State quarterback Dwayne Haskins and Oklahoma quarterback Kyler Murray to raise their profiles heading into the second half of the season in advance of the late November voting period.
While Tagovailoa stayed on top of projections as a 2/3 pick on the Las Vegas lines, according to the betting site Bovada — the first time his odds haven’t improved in weeks — Haskins’ odds improved from 9/2 to 3/1 after a 412-yard, three-touchdown performance against Minnesota and Murray, whose Sooners didn’t play, went from 7/1 to 3/1.
Hardly a tectonic shift by any means, but indicative of how perceptions can begin to pivot on the slightest wrinkle as we move closer to voting.
The winner will be announced Dec. 8 in New York.
Mililani High graduate McKenzie Milton, who rallied Central Florida past Memphis 31-30, avoiding an upset for the Knights’ NCAA-leading 19th consecutive victory, also saw his Heisman odds drop. Milton, who finished eighth in 2017 Heisman voting, saw his odds this week fall from 12/1 to 20/1 after completing 17 of 29 passes for 296 yards and a touchdown in the rain.
There is a rule of thumb around the Heisman Trophy that you don’t win the bronze sculpture in September but you can sure lose it in October. Recall, for example, the case of LSU running back Leonard Fournette, who was the early favorite in 2015 but by the time the votes were in didn’t even make it as a finalist and finished sixth.
Michigan quarterback Denard Robinson (2010) and West Virginia quarterback Geno Smith (2012) suffered somewhat similar fates.
And closer to home, Marcus Mariota at Oregon was an early leader as a sophomore in 2013, but a knee injury and resulting loss to Stanford in late October was a turning point and he finished eighth. He rebounded in 2014 to run away from the field.
For somebody who has yet to see action in the fourth quarter this season, Tagovailoa’s numbers are beyond remarkable: 71.5 completion percentage, 1,760 yards, 21 touchdowns and no interceptions, and the dimension he has given the Crimson Tide is considerable.
Tagovailoa surely benefits from playing on college football’s most talent-laden team, one that probably has the best set of receivers in the nation. But on the flip side, that usually means that, to this point in the season at least, the games are well over by the fourth quarter when Tagovailoa has a seat on the bench and his statistics don’t get pumped up.
The Heisman is still very much Tagovailoa’s to win or — as history has been known to imperil the front-runners — lose.
HEISMAN ODDS
(Current odds on winning the Heisman Tropy)
PLAYER POS. SCHOOL ODDS
1. Tua Tagovailoa QB Alabama 2/3
2. Dwayne Haskins QB Ohio State 3/1
2. Kyler Murray QB Oklahoma 3/1
4. Will Grier QB West Virginia 12/1
5. Trace McSorley QB Penn State 20/1
6. McKenzie Milton QB UCF 20/1
Source: Bovada.
Reach Ferd Lewis at flewis@staradvertiser.com or 529-4820.
