Hawaii’s economy is heating up at the same time that part of the Big Island is burning up from devastating lava eruptions.
But state economists say growth nevertheless is expected to accelerate this year amid record visitor arrivals and spending, an all-time low unemployment rate, an increase in state general excise tax receipts and additional air seats coming to the islands, according to the latest quarterly report released Friday by the Department of Business, Economic Development and Tourism.
“We revised our economic projection upward due to the fact that the first quarter economic performance was better than we expected,” DBEDT Chief Economist Eugene Tian said in an email.
Tian said DBEDT’s bullishness stems from the state’s most visitor arrivals ever for a quarter, with 2.4 million visitors coming by air in the January-March period; the lowest unemployment rate in the nation at an all-time Hawaii low of 2 percent; the state’s general excise tax receipts increasing 15.3 percent, the highest growth since the third quarter of 2002; and an 8.2 percent increase in air seats for 2018, which doesn’t even include possible flights from Southwest Airlines should the carrier begin service later this year.
With tourism on pace for its seventh straight year of record visitor arrivals and spending, DBEDT revised upward its visitor arrivals forecast to 6 percent from 2.7 percent in its previous forecast, and boosted its projection for visitor spending to 8.6 percent from 4.5 percent. Both revisions largely were due to additional air seats coming into the market.
Tian said he doesn’t expect the April flooding damage on Kauai and the ongoing volcanic eruptions on Hawaii island to hurt tourism.
“Visitors to Kauai from the U.S. mainland increased over 50 percent so far in May (May 1-23) and visitors to the Big Island increased over 20 percent during the same period,” Tian said. “The negative impacts on the two islands should be reflected in the longer term rather than in the short term. The impacts would be reflected in the shortage of housing, reduction in county property taxes, etc.”
DBEDT expects visitor arrivals to finish this year just shy of the 10 million mark, at 9.95 million, before exceeding that threshold in 2019. The state agency sees visitor spending this year reaching $18.34 billion.
Hawaii’s inflation-adjusted gross domestic product — the broadest measure of economic output — is now seen rising 1.9 percent this year, up from 1.7 percent in DBEDT’s previous forecast.
Nonfarm payroll jobs are projected to increase 1.2 percent, up from 1 percent, according to DBEDT.
“Tourism, professional services and the health care industries continue to be the drivers of our economic growth,” DBEDT Director Luis Salaveria said in a statement. “These three industry sectors added more than 10,000 jobs during the first quarter.”
The construction industry showed mixed results during the first quarter, however, with the value of statewide private building permits decreasing 23.9 percent. The value of Honolulu County permits decreased 37.2 percent, and Maui County fell .2 percent, while private building permit values for Hawaii and Kauai counties rose 15.1 percent and 28.7 percent, respectively.
Hawaii’s real estate market performed well during the first four months of the year, according to DBEDT.
“Both sales and median prices of homes increased for all the counties during the first four months of 2018 with the exception of the median condo price on Kauai,” Tian said. “On Oahu, the median price for single-family homes increased 4.6 percent and the median price for condos increased by 7.5 percent.”
