Although more recent events have overtaken its depiction of Hawaii island’s Puna communities, a survey conducted around the time of the 2014 Pahoa lava flows does shed some light.

The “June 27th Lava Flow Community Needs Survey” was taken Nov. 20-Dec. 11 that year by Mark Kimura and Kathryn Besio, as part of a post-doctoral research project for the geography and environmental sciences faculty at the University of Hawaii-Hilo campus.

Kimura, who now works in marketing analytics for Hawaiian Airlines, said he did the work as a matter of personal interest, having friends in the affected area. The survey drew in 784 responses in an area the U.S. Census shows as having 3,809 households.

About half the survey group, perhaps lacking a local support network, said they would need permanent or long-term housing if their home was destroyed, Kimura said.

Respondents roughly mirrored the Census population distribution: About 17 percent lived in Leilani Estates, currently the hardest-hit neighborhood.

Using that data as a baseline, Kimura projected that more than 800 people could need short- or long-term shelter in 2018, though fewer have turned up in shelters.

“It looks like people were able to find family and friends,” he added. “But … there will be long-term housing issues. That’s going to be more visible in the coming months.”