Observers, both casual and expert, have clocked the galloping speed of Hawaii’s tourism growth. It’s produced a boon in tax collections, part of what fueled some of the spending at the state Legislature in the just-finished session.
Nobody’s complaining about that, but it’s entirely unclear whether the industry leaders and state officials know how to ride this horse to keep it going for the long run. The hope is that the Hawaii Tourism Authority, currently undergoing leadership and budgetary change, will be able to balance the impacts of growth with the drive to spur it forward.
A forecast published last week by the University of Hawaii Economic Research Organization (UHERO) concluded that all signs are still flashing green for the tourism industry.
“Tourism has surged again in the first part of 2018, extending one of the longest periods of sustained visitor growth,” according to the report.
That surge in visitor arrivals in the first quarter registers at 9 percent, UHERO reported, due in part to double-digit growth in direct flights; second-quarter “lift” in airline seat counts looks strong, as well.
A factor in future growth is expected to be the arrival of Southwest Airlines to the Hawaii market. On Thursday, carrier executives announced Southwest will start its service to Hawaii from Oakland, San Diego, San Jose and Sacramento.
Start dates for neither the California service, nor a projected lower- fare interisland service after the mainland flights are established, have been announced. Further, it’s uncertain whether Southwest will have more staying power than other recent — and failed — challengers to the dominant Hawaiian Airlines.
Some published market analyses do acknowledge that Southwest has a strength others lacked: brand loyalty of many regular passengers to other destinations. And the announcements themselves serve to spotlight a robust industry.
Still, the industry’s strength cannot be taken for granted. Current news about destructive lava on Hawaii island and last month’s devastating rains and flooding on Kauai have topped national headlines, showing how vital it is for Hawaii leaders to counter misperceived dangers with “open for business” reassurances.
Further, as year-over-year tourism records mount, they are running up against a counter-
argument: Hawaii is near, or exceeding, its carrying capacity for the tourists the islands already are hosting.
Crowded, unkempt parks, beaches, trails and other popular attractions, natural and manmade. Traffic and increased tourist presence in residential communities that are ill-equipped to deal with the pressures, including the conversion of homes to short-term vacation rentals, almost all of them illegal.
UHERO last week also published a brief, prepared for a Hawaii Economic Association panel, titled “Rethinking Hawaii Tourism: 21st Century Solutions for 21st Century Challenges.” The takeaway message in this paper is that a common but misguided response to such ills is to seek a reduction in the tourist traffic itself.
Not only is this impossible to engineer directly — Hawaii cannot control what U.S. citizens can cross state lines, or where a noncitizen with a tourist visa can go — but it’s a misdirected impulse, according to the brief.
”It is unfortunate that all of tourism’s ‘problems’ are frequently blamed on tourists, when the finger should be pointed at local governments and residents for allowing them to happen,” wrote the author, James Mak, a UHERO fellow and professor emeritus of economics at UH.
A fix could mean something simple, such as admission fees that more reasonably finance upkeep of parks and natural resources. Or it could be regulatory schemes to moderate and tax the vacation- rental businesses that have largely gone unguarded, and untapped. City officials are proceeding at last with their efforts in that regard.
In this context, it seems sensible that state lawmakers this year authorized less money for HTA marketing efforts; more, indeed, should be available for stewardship of resources.
Let’s hope this approach will preserve the Hawaii tourists can enjoy, and the island home that residents treasure, and deserve.
