Over the next several decades, we can expect to see climbing rates of coastal flooding and erosion among other climate-related troubles in the islands. Oahu alone could lose nearly $13 billion in structures and land edging its shorelines, according to the recently released Hawaii Sea Level Rise Vulnerability and Adaption Report.
Clearly, approaching challenges tied to global warming are daunting. But much can be done to fend off potential catastrophe. That reasoning prompted city leaders to set up the Honolulu Climate Change Commission, which assembled for its first meeting a few months ago.
The five-member panel of academics and sustainability experts is tasked with poring over the latest scientific data and other information tied to the weighty matter’s current and future impacts on Oahu and the state. In coming years, the commission will be tapped by Honolulu Hale and the City Council for recommendations on shaping policy and legislation aimed at effectively contending with threats.
Serving as commission chairwoman is Makena Coffman, a professor and chairwoman of the Department of Urban and Regional Planning at the University of Hawaii at Manoa. Coffman, who holds a doctorate in economics, is also a research fellow with UHERO (UH Economic Research Organization). Her research focus includes greenhouse gas mitigation, energy policy and alternative transportation strategies.
Born and raised in Kaneohe, Coffman earned an undergraduate degree in international relations at Stanford University. She then decided to return home and get involved in environmental policy.
“One of my first jobs, when I was 22, was as a recorder for a facilitated process on where to lay new power lines. It was then that I realized the overlap between energy policy and urban planning” on Oahu, she said. “The conversation wasn’t really about power lines, but the future of Honolulu.”
Question: What do you hope to see the Climate Change Commission accomplish in the way of short-term goals?
Answer:We have to help raise awareness by a lot, and quickly. Policy-making in response to climate change is needed urgently now, not later. For example, the Hawaii Sea Level report projected that with 3 feet of sea level rise on Oahu, 18 miles of coastal roads will become impassable and 13,000 residents will be displaced. And if we continue to build seawalls in an attempt to save property, many miles of beaches will be forever lost.
Q: Long-term goals?
A: The commission must become an arbiter of complex, highly credible information. Hopefully we can help serve this purpose because commission members have expertise ranging from sea level rise and infrastructure, to renewable energy and low carbon strategies, microbiome and biological processes, construction standards and building design.
Right now, our energy use in ground transportation is increasing, a trend we can turn around. The commission must tackle this subject, along with many others: informing the city’s pending Climate Action Plan, disaster management and resilience, and building codes and energy efficiency, to highlight a few.
Q:The commission works in tandem with the city’s Office of Climate Change, Sustainability and Resiliency (created in 2016 when voters approved an amendment to the City Charter). But City Council Chairman Ernie Martin recently eyed cutting its proposed funding (fiscal year 2019) by almost half. Thoughts?
A: When the office had really just gotten up to full staff, the proposed budget cut would have created uncertainty when we need to move forward with clear purpose. Happily, the budget seems to have been restored.
Q: Hawaii is the most petroleum-dependent state in the nation. What are your thoughts on progress toward complying with a state law that directs utilities to draw all electricity sales from renewable energy resources by 2045?
A: The utilities have made tremendous progress, in the past five years more than doubling the amount of renewable energy on the grid. There are different lessons to be learned from our islands, wherein Kauai and Hawaii island have the highest penetration of renewable energy so far. Oahu is a big challenge because it has the largest population and more limited land availability. There are exciting opportunities on the horizon, though, such as moving to time-varying electricity rates that help to better integrate intermittent sources of energy like solar and wind, and also declining battery storage costs.
To me, the biggest challenge is how we make this transition in a way that, first, achieves massive decarbonization and, second, is fair to the consumer.
Q: Hawaiian Electric Co.’s Electrification of Transportation Strategic Roadmap — filed with the state Public Utilities Commission last month — envisions that by 2045 our state’s inventory of conventional cars will be largely replaced by EVs. Is that possible, realistically?
A: It’s definitely possible to massively decarbonize our transportation system, but it will require thought and management. Cars stay on the road for about a decade, so the process of changing out the fleet will take time. If the federal fuel efficiency policy sticks (and I hope it does), we will be getting more fuel-efficient vehicles, although not necessarily all electric.
While electric vehicles can be fantastic tools to reduce greenhouse gas emissions, they have to be charged with renewable energy. So there is a timing trick of making sure we’re giving the right incentives to electric vehicle owners to charge their cars when renewable (solar) energy is available, rather than at present when electricity at night on Oahu is coming primarily from coal.
Overall, this transition is about embracing a number of policy tools ranging from highly efficient vehicles to land use planning, car sharing and complete streets (designing public right-of-ways to be comfortable for users, whether traveling by foot, bus, car, bicycle or any other mode).
Q: Among our state’s heftiest carbon footprints: air travel, right?
A: Air travel is actually not the largest sector based on the greenhouse gas inventories that we have available. Based on a 2007 greenhouse gas inventory, the transportation sector as a whole is the largest. Aviation is about equal in size to ground transportation. The electricity sector is the other large contributor. Updated numbers for 2010 and 2015 are currently being developed under the state Department of Health.
Act 234, which is the Hawaii law governing greenhouse gas emissions to the year 2020, excluded aviation emissions. When the numbers were pulled together, aviation-based emissions had gone down from 1990 to 2007. But this kind of efficiency gain can’t be expected to continue indefinitely — it will level off. So any greenhouse gas policy in the future, like a carbon tax, should be economy-wide.
Q: What do you see as Honolulu’s most daunting economic challenges tied to climate change?
A: Infrastructure. How to pay for all the infrastructure that will be rendered insufficient or, at worst, dangerous, such as sewers and coastal roads.
We will have to deal with infrastructure either reactively or proactively. Everything I’ve read says it’s cheaper to be proactive. This will be a huge challenge to the public sector. It will also profoundly challenge the pillars of our economy. Imagine, for example, the retrofitting that will need to incrementally occur in Waikiki. We must decide how to cope.
Q: Are there cities that Honolulu should view as models in how to address climate change?
A: I don’t know if anyone is really a model city, as everyone is dealing with issues as they come. But there’s definitely a lot to learn from others. There’s a lot to learn from New York City, post-Hurricane Sandy. And Puerto Rico post Maria.
Q: What do you think people most frequently misunderstand or fail to grasp about climate change on Oahu?
A: That somehow, if we don’t talk about it, we’re not going to have to pay for it.
Q: In your ongoing examination of climate change, what are you most optimistic about?
A: That there are so many ways for us to reduce our greenhouse gas emissions, from technology fixes to innovative markets and behavioral changes. Similarly, there are rational means of offsetting the effects of a more variable climate, including planning for sea level problems. But these must be met with broad public support and political will.
