A former deputy commanding general of U.S. Pacific Command said the nation needs to be “exceptionally aggressive about providing near-term capability” for the defense of
Hawaii from North Korea — including looking at activating Aegis Ashore on Kauai and/or adding a
Terminal High Altitude Area Defense battery in
the state.
“I don’t think that relying on continental-based systems and missiles is a good enough counter and deterrent to the North Korean threat,” said retired Air Force Lt. Gen. Dan “Fig” Leaf.
Leaf, who was deputy commander of Pacific Command 2005 to 2008 and director of the Daniel K. Inouye Asia-Pacific Center for Security Studies 2012 until January, adds a prominent voice to the call to add missile interceptors in Hawaii.
“By the best data base I could find, including the latest ICBM (test) launch, in less than six years of Kim Jong Un, they’ve launched 79 missile tests. That’s not provocation; that’s a pursuit of capability,” Leaf said in a phone interview.
There is “no perfect solution” to the vexing problem of North Korea’s nuclear missile program, and missile defense is technically and operationally difficult, “but we can’t make it seem easy for them — we can’t present an acquiescent target” in Hawaii, he said.
Hawaii needs to examine the potential of adding Aegis Ashore and/or THAAD defensive capability before the Pentagon is expected to have a new medium-range discrimination radar operational in the state in 2023, Leaf said.
Leaf, now a Honolulu-based security consultant with a key focus on North Korea, also opined on the threat in a Tuesday op-ed piece at DefenseOne.com titled “Improve Hawaii’s missile defenses — now.”
“If North Korea’s Kim Jong Un decides to use his all-but-inevitable nuclear ICBM to strike the United States, his target might be Hawaii,” Leaf said in Defense One. “While the U.S. must continue to develop its continental anti-missile systems, it is past time to focus on improving the defenses of America’s 50th state.”
Pyongyang could use the capability as a bargaining chip or a tool for continued provocation, but Hawaii, “isolated from the U.S. mainland and less well defended against ballistic missiles, might also be an ideal target” for a North Korean attack, Leaf said. “North Korean leaders may think it is the one strike they might get away with while dealing the hated Americans a crippling military and psychological blow.”
Riki Ellison, chairman of the nonprofit Missile Defense Advocacy Alliance, says Hawaii is the least defended of the 50 states against North Korean attack, and has been a staunch proponent of activating the $450 million Aegis Ashore missile test facility at the Pacific Missile Range Facility in times of emergency.
Hawaii is theoretically protected by 36 ground-based interceptors mainly in Alaska but also in California, a number expected to increase to 44 by the end of the year. The system has chalked up 10 successful intercepts in 18 tests since 1999 — a 55 percent success rate.
Obama administration policy called for the radar installation in Hawaii only. Navy and PMRF officials, meanwhile, are concerned about maintaining uninterrupted missile testing.
U.S. Rep. Colleen Hanabusa in July said making Aegis Ashore operational would compromise PMRF’s critical training and test mission. She said the priority sequenced in the National Defense Authorization Act for 2018, which was passed by the House Armed Services Committee, “is to assess the siting and functionality of (a medium-range) radar in Hawaii first.”
The NDAA also authorizes more missiles for Alaska, she said.
Leaf, who just won the inaugural Oslo Forum Peacewriter Prize for his essay “An urgently practical approach to the Korean Peninsula,” said in the Defense One piece that examining Aegis Ashore and THAAD for the defense of Hawaii “must be pursued.”
“These near-term solutions are available, and while likely not perfect, can provide both capability and deterrence on a pace to match North Korea’s (missile) development program,” Leaf said.
