Fed minutes: Conditions could ‘soon warrant’ a rate hike
WASHINGTON » Federal Reserve officials believed last month that near-term risks to the U.S. economy had subsided and that an interest rate increase could soon be warranted. But they did not indicate when they would likely raise rates.
The minutes of their July 26-27 meeting show that officials were encouraged by a rebound in job growth. They also took note of a stabilization of financial markets after a bout of turbulence triggered by Britain’s June 23 vote to leave the European Union.
The Fed officials believed those developments had lessened the risks for the economy in the short run. The minutes show that as a result, the officials thought a rate increase “was or would soon be warranted.”
But a key factor holding the Fed officials back was the stubbornly slow rate of inflation, which has been running below the central bank’s 2 percent target for more than four years, according to the minutes.
The minutes released today closely parallel the message the Fed sent in a statement it released after its July meeting.
In that statement, the Fed noted that the job market had rebounded from a brief slump. Still, it said it planned to monitor global economic threats and financial developments to ensure that they don’t slow the economy.
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This week, William Dudley, president of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York and a close ally of Fed Chair Janet Yellen, said in a television interview that a September rate hike is “possible.” Dudley said he thought that solid job growth would continue and that the sluggish pace of the U.S. economy would pick up.
But, as the Fed itself as done repeatedly, Dudley stressed that any policy action would depend on the health of the most recent economic data.
Though some economists say they think the Fed will be ready to raise rates next month, most have said they think the policymakers will take no action before December.
The Fed’s July decision to leave rates alone was backed by a 9-1 vote. Esther George, president of the Kansas City Fed, dissented in favor of an immediate rate increase.
In December last year, the Fed raised its benchmark lending rate from a record low near zero, where it had stood since the depths of the 2008 financial crisis. But in recent months, turbulence in financial markets and concerns about China and weakening global growth have persuaded the Fed to keep rates on hold.
Fed officials have also expressed concern about the tepid pace of U.S. growth, weakness in worker productivity, excessively low inflation and the long-term consequences of Britain’s vote in June to leave the European Union.
Investors will be paying close attention to a speech that Yellen will give on Aug. 26 to an annual conference of central bankers in Jackson Hole, Wyoming, for any further clues about the Fed’s timetable for a rate hike.
The minutes said “a couple” of officials had advocated a rate increase at the July meeting. However, the majority of the group agreed that waiting would give them more time to assess whether the economy was strong enough to withstand the potential aftershocks when the Fed does raise rates.
But Fed officials also noted the risks of waiting too long. If labor market conditions tightened so much that inflation pressures jumped, the Fed would have to respond with a more rapid series of rate hikes that could jeopardize the recovery.
Although near-term concerns associated with Britain’s vote to leave the EU had dwindled, officials mentioned other threats that needed to be closely monitored, including the possibility that growth in Britain and the EU could be slower than expected. Some Fed officials also expressed concerns that weak capital positions and sizable non-performing loans at some European banks could also weigh on the continent’s growth prospects.
In addition to lingering problems in Europe, some officials noted weakness in other parts of the global economy, including uncertainties over China’s currency policies and the growth in Chinese debt.
8 responses to “Fed minutes: Conditions could ‘soon warrant’ a rate hike”
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Don’t believe anything Yellen says. FED will do what’s best for their own financial self-interest.
Straight politics. Raise rates = economy is doing well. Don’t raise rates = economy is doing poorly. Yellen will toe the party line/Democratic party narrative and raise rates right before the election. We all know the economy is doing poorly, but Obama & Hillary will pee on our heads and tell us it’s raining.
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Bloviating fed speakers act like they know what they’re doing.
I’m no economist but what scares me is the raising of rates will not only shock the economy but stock values will go down and our national debt will go up. As someone thinking about retirement the uncertainty is not good.
That’s the problem with current thinking – a quarter point of half point hike in interest rates is small and insignificant and will not “shock” anything. More harm has been done by near-zero interest rates than good.
Agreed. However, it’s also highly disconcerting that the City/State/Fed have balked at taking this opportunity to get more infrastructure work done.
The whole premise behind lowering the rates (back during the recession) was to free up credit to get the conomy going. Instead private capital (banks, namely) and large corporations took this opportunity to hoard cash while most legislatures and congress screamed for austerity.
Properly executed debt, by government and business, for capital investment is a good thing.
Central planners cannot help but give to some while screwing over others, and thats exactly why one policy for the entire country is such a terrible idea. Decentralize and end the fed.