What is the Pro Bowl’s true worth to Hawaii and would its departure really be a significant financial setback?

We’re about to find out with NFL Commissioner Roger Goodell on the clock for an announcement about the site of the game for 2017 with today’s deadline per the parties’ March agreement.

Orlando, Fla., has been widely reported as its likely destination and Florida Gov. Rick Scott has tweeted, “Welcome back to the best state in the nation, @NFL #ProBowl! Looking forward to hosting everyone in Orlando.”

If the game ends up in Orlando, Robert Baumann and Victor Matheson, sports economists from Holy Cross who have studied Hawaii’s relationship with the Pro Bowl for more than a decade, contend in a study published last year that it shouldn’t be a huge setback since “the Pro Bowl does not have a statistically significant impact on arrivals to Hawaii.”

So much so that their finding questions “the wisdom of public subsidies for the game.”

The Pro Bowl is the Hawaii Tourism Authority’s single biggest sports investment annually and the $5.15 million outlay is larger than the other 18 sports events combined. In a March 2016 release, the HTA cites the Pro Bowl with a $26.2 million impact.

With the exception of 2010, when the Pro Bowl was held in South Florida, and 2015 when it was hosted by Glendale, Ariz., the game has been played at Aloha Stadium every year since 1980.

But Baumann wrote in an email, “During the sample frame of our most recent paper, we did not find a substantial drop in daily airplane arrivals in the two years when the Pro Bowl was held outside of Hawaii. To us, this speaks to the incredible drawing power of Hawaii.”

Baumann wrote, “Whether the money could be better spent is subjective. Monetarily, the Pro Bowl was not a good short-term investment for Hawaii. After all, (in 2010 and ’15) the state saved the $4 million or $5 million required to host the Pro Bowl and did not see a drop in arrivals. The HTA economic reports argue the economic benefits outweigh the cost, but we find otherwise.”

Matheson said in a phone interview, “So even though you have a big audience in the stadium, that doesn’t seem to equate to any more people actually coming to the island. That either means most of the people at the game are either local or they are people who are going to come to Hawaii anyway.”

Matheson said, “Certainly you have other events that drive a lot more visitor traffic that don’t cost a $5 million check to a bunch of billionaires in the NFL. For example, the Honolulu Marathon brings in a lot more people with no direct cost to the HTA.”

Baumann notes, “In fairness, hosting the Pro Bowl provides advertising benefits, but these are very difficult to quantify.”

However, Baumann said, “We do not want to discount the uniqueness of the event to Hawaiian residents. The Pro Bowl gave (Hawaii) residents the opportunity to see NFL stars in action and, perhaps, meet them in one of the many events leading up to the game. Without the Pro Bowl, there is no obvious substitute to this experience outside of UH football or a bowl game. Whether this is worth $5 million of state money is in the eye of the beholder.”

We might be about to find out.

Reach Ferd Lewis at flewis@staradvertiser.com or 529-4820.