Fed minutes signal readiness for December rate increase
WASHINGTON >> The Federal Reserve, setting aside its habitual reticence, is issuing increasingly explicit warnings that it is likely to start raising its benchmark interest rate in December.
Most Fed officials think the economy will be ready for higher rates, the Fed said in its latest salvo, an official account of its October policymaking meeting, which it published Wednesday.
"While no decision had been made, it may well become appropriate to initiate the normalization process at the next meeting," it said.
The account noted that liftoff from historically low rates might still be delayed by "unanticipated shocks" or disappointing economic data, but such warnings sound increasingly formulaic. In the wake of the strong October jobs report, investors and analysts are convinced that a rate hike is imminent. Borrowing costs have started to rise, and Fed officials appear to be encouraging the solidification of those expectations.
"I am comfortable with moving off zero soon, conditioned on no marked deterioration in economic conditions," Dennis Lockhart, president of the Atlanta Fed and a reliable monetary policy bellwether, said Wednesday at a conference in New York.
William C. Dudley, president of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, said he did not think markets would be surprised when the Fed starts raising rates. He has said that it is important to ensure markets anticipate the Fed’s move.
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The Fed has held short-term interest rates near zero since December 2008 as the major element in its campaign to stimulate economic growth by encouraging borrowing and risk-taking. By raising interest rates, it will reduce that encouragement. Fed officials emphasize that they plan to retreat gradually, because the economy remains relatively weak.
The account noted that financial markets had settled down after a period of volatility that contributed to the Fed’s decision not to raise rates in September.
Even before the release of the October jobs report, which allayed concerns about a labor market slowdown, officials already sounded confident that the economy could handle higher rates. Most thought that labor market slack had largely disappeared, and most continued to predict that inflation would rebound following several years of sluggishness.
"The U.S. financial system appeared to have weathered the turbulence in global financial markets without any sign of systemic stress," the account said.
Underpinning the Fed’s forecast of continued growth is the strength of consumer spending.
"Participants were encouraged by the solid pace of consumption growth in the third quarter and generally expected consumer spending to rise moderately going forward," the account said.
Some officials still argued that it was too soon to start raising rates. Their case focused less on current conditions than on the risk that the economy would suffer a setback.
These officials warned that a global downturn could cause "a potential loss of momentum in the economy and the associated possibility that inflation might fail to increase as expected," according to the minutes.
Others, however, counseled against delay. They argued that the Fed would only confuse financial markets by delaying, and that it risked undermining economic confidence.
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