After 10 years or so of unshakable drought, Maui’s Ulupalakua Ranch is now sporting a striking coat of green.
“I can honestly say I’ve never seen it like this,” said Sumner Erdman, the ranch’s president, who has worked on the lower slopes of Haleakala for 50 years.
Thanks to all the rain over the past few months, Hawaii is completely drought-free for the first time in 7-1/2 years.
The latest U.S. Drought Monitor update, issued Oct. 6 by the National Drought Mitigation Center, shows not one single place in the Aloha State suffering from drought — a condition not seen here since April 15, 2008.
It was just three months ago that two-thirds of the state was suffering under abnormal drought conditions. Seven months ago the entire state was described as enduring drought, with more than half the region labeled as having the more severe “moderate drought.”
But that was then. This summer’s record-breaking rainfall turned Diamond Head and even the driest of leeward areas a lovely picture-postcard green.
Groundwater levels have risen, and stream flows are either normal or above normal, according to the U.S. Geological Service.
Will these lush conditions last?
Probably not for long, officials said, because the same force of nature responsible for drawing all that unseasonable moisture this summer — the El Nino weather pattern — is likely to prevent normal levels of rain this winter and into the spring.
How did Hawaii go from lean to green so fast?
August was wet. And, for many areas, September was even wetter. Sixteen days in August saw heavy rain as monthly rainfall records were shattered in several locations. On Sept. 3 Honolulu was raked with thunderstorms and torrential rainfall at rates of 3 to 4 inches per hour.
According to the National Weather Service, the summer rain helped boost yearly rainfall totals (through August) to 143 percent of normal (11.29 inches) at Honolulu Airport, 141 percent of normal (15.04 inches) at Kahului Airport, 87 percent of normal at Hilo Airport (69.56 inches) and 82 percent of normal (17.49 inches) at Lihue Airport.
National Weather Service hydrologist Kevin Kodama said the summer rain was helped by the fact that the island chain was surrounded by waters a few degrees warmer than average, generating the fuel to produce more active showers and thunderstorms than would be normally expected.
What’s more, he said, the appearance of several tropical cyclones helped to draw in a deep tropical air mass and bands of intense rainfall.
The strong El Nino weather phenomenon is ultimately responsible, Kodama said. Warm ocean water that pools at the equator in the eastern Pacific ends up changing weather patterns across the world.
In Hawaii the onset of El Nino brought humid conditions, diminished tradewinds, warmer ocean water, summer rain and the threat of hurricanes. When El Nino digs in this winter, it will bring unseasonably warm days and drought that might last into spring.
Hawaii state climatologist Pao-Shin Chu said there’s even a chance that meager rainfall will persist into the summer because of another climate phenomenon known as the Pacific Decadal Oscillation, or PDO.
Chu, a University of Hawaii professor of meteorology, said the Pacific is a year into a decade-long positive phase of PDO that tends to have low rainfall.
“Along with El Nino, that’s a recipe for drought,” he said.
But the ample rain in August, September and October is helping for now, Chu said, and it’s hard to say with any certainty what will happen as spring turns into summer.
In the meantime the state’s cattle ranchers are rejoicing.
“We have more grass than cattle,” said Erdman of Ulupalakua Ranch, located on South Maui’s oft-parched highlands. “That’s a nice thing to say, because it’s been five years the other way.”
He said that from 1997 to 2015 the ranch suffered during 10 to 12 years of drought. From 2007 to 2013 Erdman cut his herd to 1,400 from 2,300 to deal with the situation. Now he’s looking to build his herd back up to 1,800 or so.
“When you spend half the year wondering how you’re going to feed your cattle, it feels different and weird being in the opposite situation,” he said. “It’s a good feeling.”
Chris English, president of the Hawaii Cattlemen’s Association, said the rain is welcome relief for ranchers who have suffered for years. Many ranchers downsized their herds coping with the drought and are now trying to rebuild, he said.
English, of Ponoholo Ranch, said drought lasted nine years at his North Kohala ranch and ended just about a year ago.
“And now 2015 has been definitely wet,” he said. “I’m not complaining.”
Nahua Guilloz, senior manager of Waimea’s Parker Ranch, said greener pastures and more forage mean cattle don’t have to be moved from pasture to pasture as often, and they gain weight faster.
“After eight years of drought, we’re doing awesome,” Guilloz said.