Dan Grabauskas has heard the arguments about why rail is costing too much and what can be done about it, and he’s got a ready response for them. The painful billion-dollar cost overrun and the receding finish line still hangs over the city’s mass transit project, though, and that’s what’s fueling the drive to find ways of cutting back.

In one form or another, cost containment is a challenge faced by the builders of mass transit projects across the country because, typically, estimates of the cost are way off from the start. Rose-colored glasses are commonly part of the planners’ wardrobe, say the experts.

Brian Taylor, an urban planning professor specializing in transportation policy at the University of California at Los Angeles, calls it "optimism bias."

"For the most part, people generally want to see things happen," Taylor said. "They’re interested in the public good. The instructions are to find a way to make it go."

Locally, the authorities are now in a time and money crunch. Grabauskas, chief executive officer of the Honolulu Authority for Rapid Transportation, is in discussions with federal officials about the need to delay the opening day for the project until 2021 instead of 2020.

The Federal Transit Admnistration has not yet signed off on that postponement. The date was part of the Full Funding Grant Agreement — it’s a term of the contract, but Grabauskas is expressing cautious optimism that the FTA will bend on that.

It’s the money that’s causing the most public consternation, with frequent rail detractors and even its supporters — all the way up to Mayor Kirk Caldwell — beating the drum for cost-saving strategies. There’s a long list of cuts already on the table that, all told, would amount to about $41 million (see Page E5 for some examples).

However, the critics want a more drastic change than that. Some propose a different technology such as magnetic levitation (maglev). Others believe truncating the length of the 20-mile alignment, ending it at Middle Street, Aala Park or some other point, is the answer.

Those routes to cost savings, the CEO said, would be problematic.

"In the case of changing the technology to something other than steel wheel on steel rail, I would hasten to add that not only was there a robust debate among experts, but it was actually put in front of the voters," Grabauskas said. "There was a question on the ballot that said, ‘Do you approve of this technology?’

"So for me just to say, ‘Ahhhh, let’s change it to maglev’ or anything else, that’s not what the voters here voted."

Besides, he disputed assertions that maglev is less expensive.

"It’s a technology that’s putting a jet engine into a Volkswagen Beetle," he said. "Very few places even have maglev. Why do you do it? You do it to achieve very high speeds over very great distances — the Shanghai maglev, for example, from the airport to downtown.

"Here, our maximum speed is 55 mph; our average speed is 35 mph. We’re moving a lot of people very short distances, station to station, so you don’t need that capability."

Stopping the project far short of the planned terminus at Ala Moana Center, he said, is not likely to win federal approval, either — especially not solely for the purpose of saving money.

"They say, ‘We’ll allow you to shrink it, but you can’t shrink it to, like, two stations in a mile, because it’s not an operable segment. It’s an investment that doesn’t get you that much," he added.

Breaking the terms of the $1.55 billion federal subsidy could mean giving Uncle Sam his money back. To those who say it would ultimately be cheaper to do that, Grabauskas would say: Then the taxpayer would be buying something that isn’t worth the investment, albeit reduced, of local funds.

"There’s an analysis that takes place that creates the minimum operable segment, an investment that gets you the bang for your buck," Grabauskas said.

"And that analysis is what got us to the 20 miles and 21 stations…. While Middle Street, I think, makes a lot of sense because it’s a bus transit hub, the highest ridership station in the entire system is expected to be Ala Moana.

"Can you modify a contract?" he added rhetorically. "Of course you can. Can you do it easily? No.

"The reasons that I’ve ever experienced of why there may have been a willingness of the FTA to modify things … ‘We don’t have money, all of a sudden’ is not typically the one that will get them to change their mind."

"If you don’t connect into the urban downtown core, the argument would be you’re not getting the bang for the buck."

Already the project has taken heat because many believe a major point of the system should be to link West Kapolei with Waikiki and the University of Hawaii, the terminus points of the original plan, he said — the "locally preferrred alternative."

Underestimating costs, not anticipating major problems — the environmental lawsuits and contract challenges are often cited reasons for delays — are not uncommon in the transportation sector. Susan Tierney, spokeswoman for Valley Metro in greater Phoenix, said the communities along its original 20-mile line preferred a concrete trackway to the ballasted (crushed stone) surface initially planned, which increased costs by about $38 million.

Tierney added that Valley Metro transitioned to a design-build construction timetable, in which a single entity handles both tasks in tandem, which is widely seen as more efficient. The first line opened with only days to spare before the final deadline, she said; the extension, a design-build project, opened seven months ahead of schedule.

"It’s especially important to be flexible and open to adjustments along the way to enhance the overall project and make it more attractive as a public, community asset," she said.

HART is hoping to realize some time and money savings in design-build, Grabauskas said, and in repackaging the work into smaller contracts in which the winning bidder would coordinate work at both the stations and its portion of the guideway.

That is anticipated to reduce risks, he said, because conflicts over various details in design and construction can lead to delays, prompting the contractor to bid up.

That change — as well as pushing back the deadline to ease the construction schedule — is expected to yield the biggest savings, he said.

Contracts in design-build are less prescriptive on some details, such as what equipment should be used, Grabauskas said, but industry experts pointed out that some prescribed gear would need to be shipped in, and proposed more creative solutions.

There are about 160 changes in the station construction — "nice to have" items such as less expensive landscaping and flooring and wall finishes. Bathrooms, while not required by the grant agreement, were left in because of the public demand for them. About $5 million in art treatments at the stations is being kept in the budget in the interest of beautification.

Other items still on the cutting board, such as some escalators, might be restored if the City Council presses for them, he said. And there may be shared costs with developers at the stations that could offset the station costs — escalators and other details.

Not up for deletion are items such as elevators, safety gates, closed-circuit televisions or the added seats in the rail cars, he said.

The savings, of course, are still only a fraction of the entire overrun. Much of the reason for cost overruns is the underestimation at the outset.

One of Taylor’s UCLA doctoral candidates, Carole Turley Voulgaris, has titled her dissertation, "Crystal Balls and Black Boxes: Policy Effects on Optimism in Ridership and Cost Forecasts for New Starts Projects."

Not only are initial projections low-balled by the public agencies, but when better-informed estimates come in later, they tend to be anchored to the original estimate, Voulgaris said in an emailed response.

Walking away from a project, she added, "would be an unusual decision, since a lot of time and resources will have already been invested in the project at that point, and it can be hard, both politically and emotionally, to just walk away from that initial investment.

"Throughout the project development process, there can be a lot of incentives for everyone to keep cost estimates and budgets low," Voulgaris said. "At the end of the day, the problem might have less to do with cost containment and more to do with setting a reasonable, realistic budget in the first place."