Conditions could spell a record season for storms
With strong El Nino conditions helping to lob a succession of hurricanes in our direction, the central Pacific may well be on its way to a record-setting year.
When Hurricane Jimena enters central Pacific waters Tuesday as expected, it will be the region’s ninth named storm of the season.
That’s only two short of the record for the annual number of tropical cyclones in the region: 11 in 1992 and 1994, according to data kept by the Central Pacific Hurricane Center in Honolulu.
Setting a new record is well within reach, officials said, since we’re only halfway through the hurricane season, which lasts from June through November.
Another ominous sign of El Nino’s influence occurred over the weekend as three powerful Category 4 hurricanes — Kilo, Ignacio and Jimena — were spinning in the central and eastern Pacific all at the same time.
That is believed to be a meteorological first, said Chevy Chevalier, Central Pacific Hurricane Center meteorologist, who added that even three Category 3 storms would have been a record.
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Another rarity — and maybe even a first — is possible Tuesday if Hurricane Kilo lingers on this side of the international date line at 180 degrees longitude, which marks the western edge of the central Pacific, after Jimena enters the central Pacific at 140 degrees longitude, the eastern edge of the region.
If that happens, the Central Pacific Hurricane Center will be responsible for tracking three hurricanes all at once. Chevalier said he’s unaware of that ever happening before.
For the record, Kilo was forecast to cross the date line either late Monday night or early Tuesday.
Hawaii state climatologist Pao-Shin Chu said these records and rarities are all signs of El Nino’s powerful influence this year.
Chu said the El Nino phenomenon brought low-level westerly winds moving east along the Pacific equator, helping set up conditions favorable for creating tropical storms. Those conditions — including lots of moisture in the air — create a mixture that fuels the fledgling storms and makes them grow stronger and more powerful as they travel over warm water.
The central Pacific averages four to five tropical cyclones a year. With El Nino in the forecast, National Weather Service officials predicted five to eight storms.
The hurricane season started warming up in July with three tropical storms that formed in the central Pacific: Ela, Halola and Iune. They never really threatened the islands, however.
But then came August, historically the busiest month of the hurricane season. Guillermo threatened the islands before churning to the north, while menacing Hilda ended up moving to the south. Tropical Storm Loke formed near the date line and posed no threat to the main Hawaiian Islands.
Kilo’s path appeared to set a bull’s-eye on the state before it sailed off to the west. Moisture from Kilo, in combination with an upper trough of low pressure, brought some violent thunderstorms to the islands.
It now looks like Hawaii will dodge the wrath of Ignacio, which maintained Category 2 hurricane status Monday night but was weakening as it moved north of the state.
Hurricane Jimena remained a Category 4 hurricane Monday night but was forecast to weaken into a tropical storm by Saturday while likely moving to the north of the islands.
But forecasters said it was much too early to say what kind of influence the storm will ultimately have on Hawaii.
Galen Yoshimoto, spokesman for the Hawaii Emergency Management Agency, urged residents to remain vigilant and prepared.
"It’s Mother Nature," he said. "You can’t let your guard down. It only takes one."
State officials remain on guard as Gov. David Ige late last week signed a proclamation activating the state’s Major Disaster Fund, while nonprofit groups and hundreds of volunteers are ready to step up in case the islands do get slammed.
Yoshimoto conceded that some folks may have grown fatigued or complacent with all the close calls. But for the most part, he said, people have remained fully aware and cautiously ready.
"Last year when Iselle made landfall, people said, ‘Oh — OK,’" he said.
Tropical Storm Iselle, which caused millions of dollars in damage when it slammed into Hawaii island Aug. 8, 2014, was the first tropical cyclone to make landfall in the islands in 22 years.
According to National Weather Service records going back to 1971, August has experienced 80 tropical cyclones. July has seen 47; September, 37; October, 18; and November, three.
But officials warn that it’s not time to back off on being prepared. Hurricane Iniki mowed down Kauai in September 1992, they noted, while Hurricane Iwa struck the same island in November 10 years earlier.
Last year, Tropical Storm Ana appeared in October. The storm skirted the islands to the south but dumped enough rain to cause the Sand Island Wastewater Treatment Plant to overflow and send about 5,000 gallons of partially treated wastewater into Honolulu Harbor.
Last year was also a busy year for the Central Pacific Hurricane Center. The center’s forecasters issued more tropical storm advisories last year than in any year in the last decade and probably longer, officials said.