Barring some new successful round of lobbying, the Legislature will not return in 2013 to change state law to allow for gay marriage.

House Speaker Joe Souki says he has surveyed all members of the House, and the 34 votes needed to call a special session are not there.

"We took a poll. We have the votes to pass the bill, but not the two-thirds majority needed for special session," Souki said in an interview this week.

The numbers, Souki said, mean that there will be no special session.

This does not mean same-sex marriage is not going to happen in Hawaii, but unless Gov. Neil Abercrombie reverses his position and calls the Legislature back into session, it is stalled on the runway and awaits a 2014 takeoff.

The entire issue is filled with subplots and a Rubik’s cube of twists involving competition both in legislative leadership and the governor’s race.

Souki, for instance, became speaker at the behest of a nominally liberal and progressive coalition of House Democrats. He then included the seven House Republicans, who are a blend of conservative and middle-of-the-road politicians, including three freshmen.

Balancing the competing interests means Souki will not force an issue.

For instance, although he voted against civil unions in the past, Souki said his vote on gay marriage will be reflective of the House majority.

"I am allowing the caucus to make the decision; I am not committed one way or the other at this time," Souki said.

"We are willing to take early action on it next year," he added.

This week, Souki said, gay marriage would pass with a majority, but he is not willing to say if the count is the needed 26 or more.

"I can say that I would be surprised if we didn’t have the votes to pass it," Souki added.

The state Constitution permits a special session if called for by two-thirds of both the House and Senate, so even if the Senate is willing, it cannot dance without the House.

The Legislature can also go back into session if ordered into session by Abercrombie. But making that decision was complicated by state Sen. David Ige’s entry into the race for governor.

Now that Abercrombie has competition from a veteran Democrat, he has to be careful.

Calling a special session for gay marriage, while likely to be successful, will also inflame conservatives and may encourage others to jump into the race for governor.

When Abercrombie was the only person running in the Democratic gubernatorial primary, he occupied most of the liberal and progressive positions, so if someone wanted to run against him, the only traction would come from someone even more liberal. Many feel that an uncontested Democratic primary will mostly attract liberal and strongly Democratic voters.

But, with two liberals such as Abercrombie and Ige in the race, there could be room for a third challenger who is more conservative.

Enter former Mayor Mufi Hannemann, who even if he has lost his last two races, including one to Abercrombie, could gather more conservative voters plus those who would not like Abercrombie to push for a special session just for same-sex marriage.

Given those possible risks, it is simpler just to go into the regular 2014 session and act on gay marriage then.

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Richard Borreca writes on politics on Sundays, Tuesdays and Fridays. Reach him at rborreca@staradvertiser.com.