With the race for Hawaii’s open 1st Congressional District seat up for grabs, at least one analyst predicts the contest could come down to who has more money for the final push and who gets outside help from mainland third-party money.

Democrat Mark Takai, who already has spent $1.2 million on the race, and Republican Charles Djou, who has a 2-to-1 lead in cash on hand heading into the home stretch, are tied at 47 percent each, according to the latest Hawaii poll.

The closeness of the race likely means a deluge of social media and more ads — both from local and mainland groups, said John Hart, chairman of the communications department at Hawaii Pacific University.

"If tradition holds true, you will see a last-minute negative campaign being launched largely on social media," Hart said. "If you look at the playbook, that seems to be what’s popular to do lately."

He said he also expects more ads from political action committees, or PACs, from outside of Hawaii who are likely to be negative.

"There’s no question, given the rules right now, (political action committees) are hugely important, and that’s exactly the scenario that I think you’ll see take place," he added. "It’s not going to be the candidates’ direct campaign. It’s not going to be the state party campaign. You will see a PAC come in at the last minute with a negative campaign — a negative ad — and it’ll be rolled out through social media."

Takai and Djou are fighting for 7 percent of likely voters who said they did not know or refused to say who would get their vote, according to poll numbers released Thursday.

The Hawaii Poll, conducted by Ward Research Inc., for the Honolulu Star-Advertiser and Hawaii News Now, surveyed 354 likely voters in the 1st Congressional District, which covers urban Oahu. Polling of landlines and cellphones was done Oct. 11-18. The poll has a margin of error of 5.2 percentage points.

"I’m very eager," Djou said. "I look forward to the last week and a half of campaigning and really diving in there to get my message out that we can do better — that the status quo is failing us."

Takai was similarly upbeat. "It’s obviously a pretty tight race, and we have to continue to urge our supporters to come out and vote," he said. "We need everyone to turn out on Election Day for this election, and I think this race is going to be won with hard work."

The poll showed both candidates with high favorable numbers, with Takai’s rating at 63 percent followed by Djou at 60 percent. But Djou’s unfavorable rating of 31 percent was twice that of Takai’s 15 percent.

Takai was unknown to 10 percent of those polled, with 12 percent who said they did not know enough about him.

"We’ve always been working on it since we first started this campaign a year ago," Takai said. "We knew we had to increase our name recognition, and every poll we’ve seen has shown a marked improvement.

"We’re very encouraged by the numbers."

Djou was unknown by 3 percent, with only 6 percent who did not know enough about him.

Despite the higher unfavorable rating, Djou saw another side to the data.

"My support is a lot more solid than his is — different people do know who I am," Djou said. "I think there’s a tendency for people to vote with what they know instead of what they don’t know.

"I think it shows, in all likelihood, that my support is a lot more stable, which gives me a strong position to push hard through to the very end."

In the head-to-head poll, the candidates were about even across gender, age and income demographics and polled as expected among members of their own party. There was a strong contrast among voters of different racial backgrounds.

Takai polled strongest among Japanese voters, 66 percent to 27 percent. Djou led among all others: 56 percent to 41 percent with Caucasians, 53 percent to 38 percent with Filipinos and 53 percent to 38 percent among Hawaiians.

"I’m pleased that it looks like we seem to have a very, very broad cross section here," Djou said. "But wherever we’re weak, we’re going to push even harder."

Takai is confident his message has broader appeal.

"From our standpoint, we’re going to get our message out, work hard and make sure that people know that we are the candidate fighting for middle-class families and strong Democratic values," Takai said.

The campaign could hinge on money and who has the resources to get his message out.

Takai raised $200,000 in the first two weeks of October, bringing his total for the two-year election cycle to $1.4 million, according to the most recent report filed with the Federal Election Commission. The 20-year veteran of the Legislature spent a significant amount trying to raise his name recognition to emerge from a crowded Democratic primary field and has $190,000 in cash on hand.

"I am encouraged and extremely grateful for every ounce of support," Takai said. "Strong fundraising enables us to communicate our vision, but it also funds our volunteer phone bankers, sign wavers and canvassers who reach every single voter."

Djou, a former state and city lawmaker who held the congressional district seat for seven months after winning a special election in 2010, raised $72,000 in the October reporting period, bringing his total for the cycle to $925,000. After facing just token opposition in the primary, he has $416,000 left for the final stretch.

"That’s only one component of the campaign," Djou said. "We are going to push and push hard all the way through the very end here, and I’m really confident and excited that we have a really good message for the people about lowering the cost of living, creating more jobs and changing the way things are going here in Hawaii, because I think the status quo is failing the people and we have a different campaign that wants to upend the status quo, and that’s what’s going to carry us forward."

Spending reports for the period covering Oct. 1-15 were due to the FEC by Thursday.

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