History might eventually treat him more kindly than voters did during the Democratic primary in August, but the initial appraisal of Gov. Neil Abercrombie’s four-year term is below average.
Asked in a new Hawaii Poll to rate the Democrat’s job performance during his term as governor on a scale of 1 to 5, with 1 being a "terrible job" and 5 being a "great job," voters gave him a 2.53.
Abercrombie’s blowout loss to state Sen. David Ige — the first time in Hawaii that a governor lost re-election in a primary, and among the worst losses by a sitting governor in U.S. history — was foreshadowed by low job approval ratings for most of his term.
"It says, as we’ve seen along, that voters just weren’t happy with his performance," said Rebecca Ward, president of Ward Research Inc., which conducted the Hawaii Poll for the Honolulu Star-Advertiser and Hawaii News Now. "There’s no one thing to point to, but I don’t think it’s a surprise given the job approval numbers that we saw all along."
Abercrombie’s defeat — 67 percent to 31 percent, a 36-point gap — was remarkable because it came after a year of policy achievements on several issues important to majority Democrats, such as same-sex marriage, an increase in the minimum wage and land preservation at Turtle Bay Resort.
The rejection was more personal than political or policy-driven, since nearly half of the voters who supported Ige told the Hawaii Poll in July that they were backing the state senator because they did not like Abercrombie. Ige is now leading former Lt. Gov. James "Duke" Aiona, the Republican, and former Honolulu Mayor Mufi Hannemann, the Hawaii Independent Party candidate, in the governor’s race.
Blake Oshiro, Abercrombie’s deputy chief of staff, said in an email that Abercrombie "had to make tough decisions on the basis of always doing the right thing to benefit the people of Hawaii."
"The administration came in with daunting budget shortfalls, furloughs and program cuts, but through the exercise of strong fiscal management, saw a rebound of our finances and the stabilization of the state’s economy. With an early education program in place, the state’s unemployment rate dropping, the elimination of discrimination through marriage equality, more available affordable housing and more people experiencing pristine land protected from development, the governor is confident that his legacy is and will be positive."
The Hawaii Poll was taken from cellphone and landline interviews among 605 likely voters from Oct. 11 to 18. The margin of error was plus or minus 4 percentage points.
Voter impressions of Abercrombie’s job performance over his term were fairly consistent across demographic groups, although voters who usually vote for Democrats, people age 35 and under and Filipinos gave the governor higher marks. The mean rating was 2.53 out of 5, and no demographic group had a mean rating that reached 3.
State Senate Minority Leader Sam Slom (R, Diamond Head-Kahala-Hawaii Kai), who has known Abercrombie since they were on opposite sides of Vietnam War protests in the 1960s, said he would have rated Abercrombie a 2 out of 5 on the scale.
Slom said Abercrombie did make more of an effort over the past two years to have a better relationship with the Legislature and community groups. He also praised the energy of the 76-year-old governor.
"But I think his past has caught up with him," he said. "You can’t disregard or disrespect people in a wholesale manner and not have any consequences for that.
"And I think that’s what has come out of this."
Slom predicted, however, that people will eventually judge Abercrombie for his entire four-decade political career, which included service in the state House and Senate, the Honolulu City Council and Congress.
"I think when you talk about somebody’s memory or what they have done, you have to look at it in totality," he said. "And I think, in totality, history will be fairer to him."
ENLARGE CHART
Governor Abercrombie:
Job Performance
On the scale of 1 to 5, where 5 represents a great job and 1 a terrible job, how would you rate Gov. Neil Abercrombie’s job performance during his term as governor?
(5) Great job |
6% |
(4) |
12% |
(3) |
33% |
(2) |
22% |
(1) Terrible job |
24% |
Don’t know/Refused |
2% |
MEAN: 2.53 |
The poll was conducted among 605 likely voters statewide by telephone (landlines and cellphones) Oct. 11-18 by Ward Research Inc. The margin of error is plus or minus 4 percent. Numbers do not total 100% because of rounding.
Congress: Charles Djou; Mark Takai:
Who would you vote for?
In the race for Congress in the 1st Congressional District, if this election were held today, who would you vote for:
Charles Djou |
47% |
Mark Takai |
47% |
Don’t know/Refused |
7% |
The poll was conducted among 354 likely Congressional District 1 voters by telephone (landlines and cellphones) Oct. 11-18 by Ward Research Inc. The margin of error is plus or minus 5.2 percent. Numbers do not total 100% because of rounding.
Congress: Charles Djou; Mark Takai:
Favorable or unfavorable?
Please tell me if you have a basically favorable or unfavorable opinion, or if you have never heard of:
|
Favorable |
Unfavorable |
Never heard of |
Heard but don’t know enough |
Charles Djou |
60% |
31% |
3% |
6% |
Mark Takai |
63% |
15% |
10% |
12% |
The poll was conducted among 354 likely Congressional District 1 voters by telephone (landlines and cellphones) Oct. 11-18 by Ward Research Inc. The margin of error is plus or minus 5.2 percent.
Congress: Cavasso; Schatz:
Who would you vote for?
In the election for U.S. Senator, if the election were held today, who would you vote for:
Cam Cavasso |
20% |
Brian Schatz |
71% |
Don’t know/Refused |
10% |
The poll was conducted among 605 likely voters statewide by telephone (landlines and cellphones) Oct. 11-18 by Ward Research Inc. The margin of error is plus or minus 4 percent. Numbers do not total 100% because of rounding.
Congress: Cavasso; Schatz:
Favorable or unfavorable?
Please tell me if you have a basically favorable or unfavorable opinion, or if you have never heard of:
|
Favorable |
Unfavorable |
Never heard of |
Heard but don’t know enough |
Brian Schatz |
63% |
24% |
5% |
7% |
Cam Cavasso |
19% |
20% |
38% |
23% |
The poll was conducted among 605 likely voters statewide by telephone (landlines and cellphones) Oct. 11-18 by Ward Research Inc. The margin of error is plus or minus 4 percent. Numbers do not total 100% because of rounding.