The race for the Democratic Party’s nomination to be the state’s next lieutenant governor is in a statistical dead heat, and could come down to last-minute appeals from the campaigns to swing a large number of undecided voters, according to one analyst.
"This race, because it didn’t get quite the focus — because of all the other races that are going on — I think you’re going to have a lot more fluidity," said John Hart, chairman of the communications department at Hawaii Pacific University. "What that means is that there’s much more opportunity in this race for campaigns to get people to change their minds and make a decision.
"This is a race where advertising, get out the vote, door to door, can still make a difference."
Data from the latest Hawaii Poll show incumbent Lt. Gov. Shan Tsutsui with 36 percent of the vote compared with 34 percent for his top challenger, state Sen. Clayton Hee. A sizable 21 percent said they did not know or refused to say who they would support.
Among other candidates, former television reporter Mary Zanakis pulled down 7 percent, while Miles Shiratori, a Kaneohe financial adviser, had 2 percent. State Medical Board member Sam Puletasi, who also is in the race, was not included in the poll.
The lieutenant governor poll used a sample of 458 likely Democratic voters statewide and was conducted by landlines and cellphones from July 21 through 29 by Ward Research Inc. of Honolulu for the Honolulu Star-Advertiser and Hawaii News Now.
The two-point spread is within the 4.6-point margin of error, making the race a statistical dead heat.
"I am humbled by the support I’ve received from the people of Hawaii who have helped make this campaign successful," Tsutsui said in a statement. "I will continue to work hard, reaching out personally to voters through my grassroots efforts.
"With such a large number of undecided voters, we still have a long way to go and I encourage everyone to get out to vote."
Hee said the most recent results were closer than earlier polls he saw, which showed him further back.
"The numbers have shrunk," Hee said. "I think it’s because he won’t debate me, he won’t defend his record and he won’t defend doubling up the costs of his office. And so people are beginning to have a better understanding of who the incumbent really is."
Tsutsui has cited scheduling conflicts for not being able to debate Hee in at least three public forums that were in the works, and Hee has repeatedly hit Tsutsui for ducking the face-to-face meetings.
Hee also has criticized Tsutsui for doubling the costs of running the Lieutenant Governor’s Office to nearly $700,000, according to a report on Hawaii News Now. Some of the increase has been attributed to opening an office on the incumbent’s home island of Maui.
The lieutenant governor’s budget is set and voted on by the Legislature and included in the overall budget bill. While Hee voted for that bill, he said it was unrealistic to think someone would vote against the entire state budget solely because it contained added costs for the lieutenant governor.
"I think it’s fair to say that his desire was to open an office on Maui because he lives on Maui," Hee said. "That’s not saying if I became lieutenant governor and live in Kaneohe, I would open up an office in Kaneohe — that’s not true.
"The office of lieutenant governor belongs in the seat of government in Honolulu."
Tsutsui defended the office.
"It is what it is," he said. "I’m not going to apologize for being from a neighbor island. I don’t think anybody should have to."
Although he hails from a neighbor island, that apparently was not enough to overly sway those voters his way, according to the Hawaii Poll.
Among respondents who said they lived on a neighbor island, Hee received 34 percent to 32 percent for Tsutsui with 27 percent undecided, while on Oahu, Tsutsui received 38 percent to 35 percent for Hee with 18 percent undecided. Both are statistical ties.
Tsutsui was strongly favored by Japanese voters, 49 percent, while Hee held sway among those who said they are Hawaiian, 43 percent.
Tsutsui, who is 42, also held a slight edge among younger voters under the age of 35, taking 30 percent of those voters compared with 24 percent for Hee, who is 61.
Hee also had a favorable rating of 45 percent to 28 percent unfavorable.
Tsutsui’s favorable rating was 40 percent with 16 percent unfavorable. His favorable was 20 points better than his rating from the February Hawaii Poll, when 56 percent had said they never heard of him and 15 percent said they did not know enough about him.
Hee did not declare his candidacy until after the 2014 session ended in May, and was not included in the February Hawaii Poll.
The most recent Democratic favorability ratings were from a sample of 612 voters with a margin of error of 4 percent.
Both candidates appear to have enough money to get their messages out in the final week of the campaign. Tsutsui had $69,000 in cash on hand at the end of July, while Hee had $165,000 left on hand.
On the Republican side, Elwin Ahu, New Hope-Metro pastor, had a favorable rating of 29 percent, compared with 4 percent unfavorable, 52 percent who never heard of him and 15 percent who did not know enough about him.
His GOP challenger, entrepreneur Kimo Sutton, had a favorable rating of 15 percent, with 9 percent unfavorable, 56 percent who never heard of him and 20 percent who did not know enough about him.
The Republican favorability question was asked of 154 likely GOP voters, and its results have a margin of error of 7.9 percent.
