You know why people bet the over, as in how many points will be scored in a football game?

Couple reasons. One is it’s more fun to cheer for offense. The other is you can hit it during the game and then stop worrying about it.

That’s not how it works with the under. If you’re going to win, you have to wait it out, often to the very last play. It’s a grind.

It boils down to smart money is often on the under. (Of course, the smartest money isn’t being gambled at all.)

But I was presented with a proposition recently where I couldn’t resist the over. A friend put his money (in the form of a nice dinner) on two or less, and I got three or more. We’re talking wins for the University of Hawaii football team this season. The guy I wagered with is a longtime UH fan who follows the game closely.

He does not think the Rainbow Warriors will win more than two of their 13 games this year after one victory in 2013. And he’s not alone.

UH fans ask me how many their team will win, and I say something like, "I don’t know yet, maybe four." They look at me like I’m crazy and ask, "When did you become such a homer?"

Sure, there are real optimists out there who seriously envision UH in the Hawaii Bowl in December. But I’ve encountered more fans like the one who thought I’d lost my mind by picking the Rainbow Warriors fifth out of six teams in their division in the Mountain West media poll.

"Who in the world could you have picked them over?" one asked.

Well, UNLV.

Now, I could be 180 degrees off on this, and the Rebels may very well continue the upward trend that placed them in a bowl game last year. But while UNLV remains strong on the offensive line, it lost too many key players in other spots.

And history is on Hawaii’s side … its closest of several narrow defeats last year was 39-37, AT Vegas. This year UH gets the Rebels at home, where the Rainbow Warriors whipped them 48-10 in 2012.

Where will the other two victories come from to win my dinner? We will look at that as the season draws closer.

For now, as camp opens, I look at it this way: A team that lost five games by seven points or fewer and was as young as the Warriors were last year HAS to be at least two wins better now. I think linebacker Julian Gener — injured for the year early on — might have made the difference himself in at least one of those narrow defeats.

Eventually they have to get over the top and then the wins will come …. maybe not a whole lot, but some.

Folks say I made another homeriffic move by picking four UH players for the preseason All-Mountain West team. I honestly think the Warriors have some of the best players in the league. But the key is keeping them healthy because depth is still a problem.

And, of course, there’s the unresolved quarterback situation. Probably the biggest question for Hawaii and the worst place to be unsettled at this point.

If you find no reason for optimism, here you go: UH enters 2014 season on a winning streak — something half the teams that went to bowl games last season cannot claim.

Reach Dave Reardon at dreardon@staradvertiser.com or 529-4783. Read his blog at staradvertiser.com/quickreads.