The upward momentum of Oahu home prices suffered a bit of a misstep in February.
Median sale prices last month declined for previously owned single-family houses and condominiums, according to data released for publication Saturday by the Honolulu Board of Realtors.
The median price for single-family houses slipped 4.6 percent to $648,000 last month from $679,000 a year earlier. The median price for condos fell 9.3 percent to $326,000 from $359,450.
To some industry observers the declines are viewed as a hiccup.
Scott Higashi, executive vice president of local brokerage firm Locations LLC, said he doesn’t believe there is any undermining of a general 3-year-old upward price trend.
"I think the fundamentals of the market remain strong," he said. "We foresee good momentum in the market."
To be sure, it isn’t unusual to have median price declines in a month here or there during a general cycle of appreciation. Yet the size of the drop for condos does stand out as relatively big.
During the prior three years when annual median prices rose between 4 percent and 8 percent, declines occurred in one month last year, three months in 2013 and one month in 2012.
The last time there was a drop bigger than the one in February for single-family houses was May 2013, when the median price decreased 5.1 percent.
HOME SALES
The number of homes sold on Oahu in February with the median price and percentage change from the same month last year:
HOMES |
SALES |
MEDIAN PRICE |
February 2015 |
201 |
$648,000 |
February 2014 |
190 |
$679,000 |
Pct. change |
5.8% |
-4.6% |
CONDOS |
SALES |
MEDIAN PRICE |
February 2015 |
290 |
$326,000 |
February 2014 |
296 |
$359,450 |
Pct. change |
-2.0% |
-9.3% |
Source: Honolulu Board of Realtors
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Last month’s $648,000 median compares with a $675,000 median price for all of last year. The median price hit its two lowest monthly points last year at $629,500 in January and $648,000 in April.
For condos, February’s median was the lowest since January 2014 when it was $320,000. For all of last year the median condo price was $350,000.
The last time there was a bigger percentage-point drop for the condo price was more than five years ago in August 2009, when there was an 11.6 percent drop during an overall negative year.
Higashi noted that over the first two months of this year, median prices are up — by 1.1 percent to $665,000 for single-family houses compared with $657,500 at the same point last year, and by 3.1 percent to $350,000 for condos compared with $339,500.
"If you look at it year-over-year for the two-month period, you’re not seeing a downward fluctuation in effect," he said. "Prices are moving up. They’re mild but it is still movement upward."
Some local economists predict that Oahu’s annual home price will rise this year and for at least the next two years.
The University of Hawaii Economic Research Organization published a forecast in August that expects Oahu’s single-family house median sale price will rise about 10 percent to $755,000 this year, followed by an 8 percent increase to $818,000 in 2016 and then a 3 percent gain to $840,000 in 2017.
For condos, UHERO forecasts the median price will rise about 6 percent to $379,000 this year, followed by an 11 percent increase to $420,000 in 2016 and then a 7 percent gain to $448,000 in 2017.
MEDIAN PRICES ON OAHU HOMES
-4.6% $648,00 last month from $679,000 a year earlier
CONDOS
-9.3% $326,000 last month from $359,450 a year earlier
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UHERO and other local economists have been saying for about two years that prices are being pushed up by a combination of new home construction that is near historic lows on Oahu and buyer demand that is being fueled by rising personal income, falling unemployment, low interest rates and record tourism.
Even though buyer demand is described as healthy, sale volume was mixed in February despite higher inventory last month.
There were 201 single-family house sales last month, up 5.8 percent from 190 sales a year earlier. Condo sales slipped 2 percent to 290 from 296.
Single-family home inventory was 1,102 last month, up from 1,078 a year earlier. Condo inventory was 1,745 compared with 1,567 in the same period.