FIRST OF FOUR PARTS

For years, Oahu residents have debated whether the elevated rail system taking shape along the island’s south shore will rescue thousands of island commuters from the nightmare that is Honolulu traffic — or if it will be little more than a taxpayer-funded gift to developers.

Now that construction is in full swing and the project faces a daunting shortfall of up to $910 million, locals remain almost evenly split over the best way forward for rail, the latest Hawaii Poll shows.

A slim plurality of Oahu residents — 29 percent — said they would prefer to see rail construction halted in light of the project’s ballooning costs, the survey conducted by Ward Research for the Honolulu Star-Advertiser and Hawaii News Now showed.

However, nearly the same amount of those polled — 27 percent — said they would prefer extending the rail excise tax surcharge to help pay the cost overruns and finish the project.

Another group representing 25 percent of those polled said that reducing costs by shortening its route or building fewer stops would be best.

Ward Research interviewed 403 residents chosen at random across Oahu from Jan. 13 to 23 to complete the Hawaii Poll. It covered a range of other island issues including homelessness, new bike lane initiatives, the mayor’s job performance, and the trustworthiness of Honolulu’s police chief and its Police Department. The poll’s margin of error was plus or minus 4.9 percentage points.

The residents surveyed gave their opinions several weeks after rail officials had announced that the project faced a construction budget deficit of at least half a billion dollars.

The interviews also took place before state legislators’ marathon grilling of Honolulu Mayor Kirk Caldwell earlier this week. Caldwell spent more than two hours Monday making a case to extend Oahu’s 0.5 percent surcharge on the state’s 4 percent general excise tax before a panel of mostly skeptical lawmakers.

Shannon Kaaa was among those polled who supported extending the surcharge to get rail done. The Aiea resident says she regularly sees from her backyard the traffic snarls on H-1 freeway that cause hourslong commutes and that something needs to be done keep the situation from getting worse.

"It’s at a standstill. It’s really bad," Kaaa said in a phone interview Friday as she stared at the H-1 from her backyard. "I strongly believe that we need to continue rail. … I believe it’s important to invest in the future."

Haleiwa resident Thomas Scoble, on the other hand, called the rail project a debacle. He was among those surveyed who want to see construction stop.

"This was foreseeable from the get-go. It was a no-brainer that was going to happen," Scoble said of the cost overruns. "Throwing good money after bad doesn’t do any good. Rethink it somehow. Solve it with a viable way to make it work and more cost-effective. Stop for now."

The poll showed a notable difference between how the island’s younger and older residents view the current rail problem.

Only 23 percent of the poll’s youngest bracket, those under 35, called for halting construction. This compared to 35 percent of the poll’s oldest bracket, those older than 55.

Some 26 percent of the youngest bracket said they wanted to see the rail tax extended, while 25 percent of the oldest bracket called for that action.

An additional 12 percent of all those surveyed said reallocating city funds from other city programs would be the best solution.

Nearly 140 columns have been planted into the West Oahu landscape as rail makes its way east toward town, supporting more than a mile of paved guideway. The full system is currently slated for completion in 2019, and the GET surcharge is set to expire in 2022, at which point transit officials project it will have netted $3.7 billion.

Caldwell and other rail leaders started lobbying last year to lift the 2022 sunset as way to fund the system’s operations and fund spurs to the University of Hawaii at Manoa and Kapolei, as originally envisioned.

Those rail leaders are back during this legislative session with the same request. But now that the project faces a giant funding shortage, they say it’s far more urgent to extend Oahu’s tax surcharge.

Nonetheless, key lawmakers have indicated it’s not likely that the city will get the tax extension during the current session.

Furthermore, while many residents would like to see rail’s size and scope trimmed to help save costs, rail officials say that’s not likely to happen, either. The city agreed to build a 20-mile, 21-station project — and if it doesn’t it could lose all of its federal funding plus have to pay back any of those dollars it’s already spent.

A total of $1.55 billion in federal funds is slated to go toward rail’s construction. Under the city’s 2012 Full Funding Grant Agreement with the Federal Transit Administration, federal officials could require the city to pay back all the money it received plus forfeit any funds it’s still owed if the city doesn’t build the project as outlined in the grant agreement.

Honolulu Authority for Rapid Transportation Executive Director Dan Grabauskas said that local and federal transit officials sometimes tweak such funding deals after they’re signed. But "significant" amendments, such as shortening the route’s length or removing stations, would require those transit officials to get approvals from Congress, he added.

Grabauskas was in San Francisco two weeks ago to discuss the project with federal officials. He said they haven’t discussed any such significant changes to the deal.

Waipahu resident Cory Chun was among those surveyed who hoped rail officials could trim the project’s stations to save on cost. Rail is "definitely something I’d consider riding once it’s built" for his work commute downtown, Chun said.

He added that he saw how convenient a fixed-rail system could be while visiting Portland, Ore.

"I guess the only difference is they had the space to build at-grade," he said.