Since the days of Franklin D. Roosevelt, politicians have believed that the path to economic and political success is paved with government construction.
Ask any politician and he or she will tell you the best economic pump is primed with government projects, buildings roads, bridges, schools and homes.
During his four years, former Gov. Neil Abercrombie heralded his freeing construction funds in nearly 150 press releases.
Projects ranged from a release of $335 million for state airports to $450,000 to spruce up the Japanese Chamber of Commerce building. Each came with a tag line stressing that the money would be "invigorating our growing construction industry and creating local jobs in the process."
One of the driving reasons for building Honolulu’s over-budget heavy rail system was that it would create up to 11,000 new jobs over the next eight years, according to the transit industry web site Honolulu Rail for Growth.
So what happened?
At last week’s state Council on Revenue’s meeting, state and private economists had to admit, construction jobs have yet to rescue us.
"We are only building some rail and some high-rises. The construction has been dominated by the neighbor islands and the vast majority has been single-family residential," reported Carl Bonham, University of Hawaii economist and council member.
Bonham said we have yet to build our way out of the recession.
"We forecast a construction cycle that was pretty robust, and some of what we are doing is moving it back and also paring it back some after a couple of years of not seeing it," Bonham said at the meeting.
Paul Brewbaker, a private economist and former council member, looked at Hawaii construction job numbers and reported "no real construction boom yet.
"Construction was supposed to kick in a couple years ago. The investment-led phase of this expansion was supposed to have arrived earlier," Brewbaker said in an email interview.
The 2015 Hawaii economic report from First Hawaiian Bank noted that "it was hoped that the construction industry would make up for much of the tourism lull, but this has only partially materialized so far this year."
As many times as developers and politicians tell you that things are going great and each project is fueling more and more jobs, the real numbers don’t back it up.
According to First Hawaiian, Hawaii lost 12,500 construction jobs during the recession. So far only 3,900 of those jobs have returned.
The last real building boom was more than 10 years ago, when a combination of private developers and federal funds built or rebuilt 17,000 military homes in Hawaii. Since then Brewbaker and others say figures on construction are distorted by the rooftop solar photovoltaic boom.
Having government pay for solar by awarding solar tax credits doesn’t create a real construction industry, Brewbaker said.
"This bids up the cost of and bids away resources from actual construction of new buildings and actual new capital formation," warned Brewbaker.
Promising new jobs in a reborn economy is one thing. Delivering real jobs in 18 months is something else.
Richard Borreca writes on politics on Sundays, Tuesdays and Fridays. Reach him at rborreca@staradvertiser.com.