A state tourism official said air seats to Hawaii are expected to fall short of projections this year, but he’s optimistic that visitor arrivals and spending still will set records.

"What we’re seeing in the fall after the peak summer period is you’ll start to see a drop-off in seats," David Uchi­yama, vice president of brand management for the Hawaii Tourism Authority, said Friday. "I don’t know if the overall number of seats will be fewer than in previous years, but it will be fewer than what we originally projected for the year."

HTA forecast in January that scheduled nonstop air seats would reach 10.75 million this year, a 6.8 percent increase over 10.07 million in 2012. The first quarter started out strong as scheduled seats rose 10.8 percent to 2.69 million. The second quarter — which is now about halfway over — was expected to be nearly as strong with HTA projecting air seats to rise 10.8 percent to 2.67 million.

But HTA has begun ratcheting down its outlook, projecting in its latest report that air seats during the May-July period would rise just 7.1 percent. That follows in line with plans by Hawaiian Airlines and other carriers to reduce seats to the islands during the second half of this year.

"You’ve got a lot of things changing in the market — our product price positioning, oversaturation in some markets of seats — and the adjustments are being made in the fall," Uchi­yama said. "Competitive markets are also starting to take a piece of market share."

Still, Uchiyama said he’s optimistic for the rest of the year.

"I don’t think it’s that dramatic a drop-off," he said. "We’re still seeing a very healthy international market, and with our marketing partners we’ll be able to implement some initiatives to help minimize any depletion of arrivals. I don’t think our record visitor arrivals and spending targets are in jeopardy as of yet."

International air seats to the islands are forecast to increase 13.2 percent, the most of any sector, during the May-to-July period, led by a 145.2 percent jump in seats from Auckland, New Zealand, on the strength of increased service from Hawaiian Airlines and Air New Zealand.

Overall, air seats are expected to hit 2.75 million during the May-to-July period compared with 2.57 million a year ago. Total flights are forecast to rise 4.8 percent to 12,468 from 11,896.

Airlines, though, already have announced flight reductions during the second half of this year.

Hawaiian Airlines, United Airlines, Alaska Airlines and Allegiant Air are reducing flights during the final six months of this year.