Farmers and ranchers, especially in parts of Maui and Hawaii island, are hunkering down to survive a prolonged drought as federal weather officials forecast drier-than-normal weather through early 2013.
But Oahu and Kauai could see their drought-stricken areas recovering during the wet season from this month through April, the federal Climate Prediction Center said Monday.
Drier conditions are more likely for some areas of Maui and Hawaii counties, said the center, a part of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration based in College Park, Md.
Maui and Hawaii ranchers say they’re hanging on by reducing their herds.
"We’re dry, really, really dry," said Herbert M. "Tim" Richards III, president of Kahua Ranch in Kohala.
Richards said the drought at the 10,000-acre ranch has continued for about six to seven years and is the worst in its history.
"The closest was 1930," he said. "It was really dry but this beats that."
He said rainfall has been about 60 to 65 percent of normal.
Haleakala Ranch President Sumner Erdman said his operations are "limping along" with some light rain and green grass.
He said the drought on the 16,000-acre ranch has continued through five years, and he’s had to cut breeding cows to 1,500 from 2,300 over the past two or three years.
"We’re below 50 percent of normal rainfall for this year," he said.
National Weather Service hydrologist Kevin Kodama said parts of Maui and Hawaii might see some recovery from the drought, but a full recovery might not occur next year due to the dry spell’s intensity and longevity.
"They’ve been in a drought so long it will take more than a couple of rain events," Kodama said.
In 2012 through September in Waimea, Hawaii, total rainfall was 21.5 inches, compared with the average of 43.6 for the same period; 9.8 inches compared with the average of 15.2 in Kula, Maui; and 5.8 inches compared with 12.9 inches in Waianae, according to preliminary federal rain gauge reports.
During this year’s dry season, May through September, drought in leeward areas redeveloped or worsened in all four counties.
Windward rainfall frequency was near normal, but daily totals were below normal, the center said.
A severe drought developed in the lower southern and eastern sections of Kauai, affecting livestock, and a moderate drought occurred in early summer on the southwestern half of Oahu.
Late summer rainfall eased conditions on Oahu and limited the drought to leeward sections of the Waianae Mountains, the center said.
The dry season also witnessed persistent drought over the eastern half of the state, including West Molokai, the southwestern slopes of Haleakala, South Kohala and Pohakuloa.
Extreme drought developed in the summer over leeward Lanai and parts of North Kona and southern Kau.
Kodama said La Niña weather patterns in the North Pacific dissipated in April and that there might be either a neutral or weak El Niño weather pattern emerging. El Niño, associated with warmer-than-normal sea surface temperatures in the eastern tropical Pacific, typically generates more tropical storms.
But El Niño also usually brings dry conditions, Kodama said.
Kodama said that recently there has been more rain from neutral patterns.
