Hawaii politics is in transition in the wake of the death of U.S. Sen. Daniel Inouye and the retirement of U.S. Sen. Daniel Akaka. The churn at the top has caused political uncertainty that might take several election cycles to settle.
Gov. Neil Abercrombie’s historic upset loss to state Sen. David Ige in the Democratic primary has shaken past assumptions about voter behavior. Majority Democrats are certain to keep control of the state House and Senate, but the leadership lineup in both chambers will likely change after the election. Republicans are overdue to correct some of the political imbalance at the Legislature. But many of the GOP’s prospects are religious conservatives who were motivated to run by last year’s special session on gay marriage, a trend that could alienate moderate voters the party needs to compete.
Here’s a rundown of potentially competitive state House and Senate campaigns, which is based on information provided from political analysts, party strategists, campaign consultants and lawmakers:
State Senate
District 18 (Mililani-Waikele-Kunia)
Sen. Michelle Kidani (D)
Dennis Kim (R)
Raymond Banda III (L)
Outlook: Leans Democratic. Kidani is vice chairwoman of the Senate Ways and Means Committee and oversees the state construction spending outlay. She turned back a primary challenge from former state Rep. Michael Magaoay and easily won re-election in 2012. She also has a sizable war chest. But this is one of the races where gay marriage could be an undercurrent. Kim, an insurance agent and estate planner, has served as the public affairs director for the Mormon Church in Hawaii.
District 23 (Heeia-Laie-Waialua)
Rep. Richard Fale (R)
Gil Riviere (D)
Outlook: Open seat. Toss-up. Sen. Clayton Hee’s decision to run for lieutenant governor has thrown the political control of this sprawling Windward and North Shore district into uncertainty. Fale, a Mormon who opposes gay marriage, had prepared to take on Hee, one of the sponsors of the same-sex marriage bill. But the dynamics have shifted, with Hee no longer the target in the general election. Riviere, who switched parties and became a Democrat after losing to Fale in a House GOP primary in 2012, is hoping environmental and land conservation matters trump social issues.
State House
District 6 (Holualoa, Kailua-Kona, Honokohau)
Rep. Nicole Lowen (D)
Kelly Valenzuela (R)
Outlook: Toss-up. Lowen, a freshman, won a rematch against Kalei Akaka, granddaughter of retired U.S. Sen. Daniel Akaka, in the Democratic primary. Valenzuela, daughter of late state lawmaker Wilfred "Buddy" Soares, is among the crop of candidates motivated to run by the special session on gay marriage. The west-side district is potentially competitive for Republicans.
District 22 (Waikiki- Ala Moana-Kakaako)
Rep. Tom Brower (D)
Janet Grace (R)
Outlook: Leans Democratic. Brower, chairman of the House Tourism Committee, gained attention last year — some of it unwanted — for taking a sledgehammer to stolen shopping carts used by the homeless. Grace, a former executive director of Hawaii Right to Life who works in home health care, is among the candidates being touted by religious conservatives. She has passed Brower in fundraising.
District 27 (Nuuanu-Liliha-Alewa Heights)
Rep. Takashi Ohno (D)
Max Fowler (R)
Outlook: Toss-up. Ohno, a freshman, defeated longtime Republican state Rep. Corinne Ching in 2012 when President Barack Obama’s presence on the ballot helped lift Democratic contenders. Fowler, an associate pastor at Kakaako Christian Fellowship motivated to run after the gay marriage debate, could be formidable. He has eclipsed the incumbent in fundraising and has attracted national Republican attention.
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FIND MORE ONLINE
Want to learn more about the political candidates in the November elections?
The Honolulu Star-Advertiser’s voting guide is posted on our website and can be accessed at elections.staradvertiser.com.
Readers can also keep up to date on politics through Political Radar, our state government and politics blog, at politicalradar.staradvertiserblogs.com.
— Star-Advertiser staff
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District 28 (Kamehameha Heights-Kalihi Valley)
House Vice Speaker John Mizuno (D)
Carole Kaapu (R)
Outlook: Democratic. Mizuno comfortably defeated Kaapu in 2012. The vice speaker, a Christian, has been active in the faith-based community in his district, but his decision to change his position and support gay marriage disappointed some fellow Christians.
District 33 (Halawa-Aiea-Newtown)
Sam Kong (D)
Robert Helsham (R)
Outlook: Open. Leans Democratic. Rep. Mark Takai’s decision to run for Congress created an open seat. Kong, a florist and religious conservative, lost two House campaigns as a Republican before switching parties to run as a Democrat. Helsham, a consultant, athletic director at Christian Academy and worship minister at First Assembly of God Red Hill, is among the candidates backed by religious conservatives in the wake of the gay marriage debate.
District 36 (Mililani-Mililani Mauka-Waipio Acres)
Rep. Beth Fukumoto Chang (R)
Marilyn Lee (D)
Outlook: Leans Republican. Fukumoto, a freshman, is one of the GOP’s emerging young leaders. Lee, a former state representative who lost to Fukumoto in 2012, gets a rematch. The district’s shifting suburban demographics make it a bellwether.
District 41 (Ewa Beach-West Loch Estates)
Matt LoPresti (D)
Bryan Jeremiah (R)
Tom Berg (L)
Outlook: Leans Democratic. LoPresti, a Hawaii Pacific University philosophy professor, ousted state Rep. Rida Cabanilla in the Democratic primary in his second try for the seat. Jeremiah, a construction worker and associate pastor at New Hope Leeward, nearly withdrew from the race because of his criminal past. Berg, a former city councilman who used to work for Cabanilla and twice unsuccessfully challenged her as a Republican, is running as a Libertarian.
District 43 (Kalaeloa- Ko Olina-Maili)
Rep. Karen Awana (D)
Andria Tupola (R)
Outlook: Leans Democratic. Awana resigned her post as House majority floor leader last year after her fourth fine for campaign-finance violations, which could make her vulnerable. Tupola, a music educator and Mormon who helped organize neighborhood protests against the special session on gay marriage, is among the GOP’s best young prospects.
District 45 (Mililani-Schofield-Kunia)
Rep. Lauren Cheape Matsumoto (R)
Michael Magaoay (D)
Outlook: Leans Republican. Matsumoto, a former Miss Hawaii, is a freshman with family roots in both the Mililani and Waialua portions of the district. Magaoay is a former state lawmaker attempting a comeback after two unsuccessful campaigns for state Senate.
District 47 (Waialua-Kahuku-Waiahole)
Kent Fonoimoana (D)
Feki Pouha (R)
Outlook: Open. Toss-up. Rep. Richard Fale’s decision to run for state Senate has created an opening for Democrats to reclaim the North Shore and Windward district. Former state Rep. Gil Riviere, who had lost to Fale in the House GOP primary in 2012, switched parties and became a Democrat with a rematch with Fale in mind. But with Riviere also now running for Senate, the race is wide open. Fonoimoana serves on the neighborhood board. Pouha, who has a personal finance business, is an ally of Fale’s who could compete if gay marriage becomes a driving issue with voters.
District 48 (Kahaluu-Ahuimanu-Kaneohe)
Jarrett Keohokalole (D)
Eldean Kukahiko (R)
Kaimanu Takayama (L)
Kana Naipo (N)
Outlook: Open. Leans Democratic. Rep. Jessica Wooley’s appointment to the state Office of Environmental Quality Control created an open seat. Keohokalole, who defeated former Sierra Club director Robert Harris in the Democratic primary, works on invasive-species issues for the state Department of Land and Natural Resources. Kukahiko, a retired police officer and a senior pastor at Hope Chapel Kahaluu, is among the candidates motivated by the gay marriage debate.
District 51 (Kailua-Lanikai-Waimanalo)
Rep. Chris Lee (D)
Wayne Hikida (R)
Outlook: Leans Democratic. Lee was the most visible House Democrat in the drive to legalize same-sex marriage. Hikida is a retired insurance executive and former Mormon bishop influenced to run by the gay marriage debate.
