Young candidates hope to start a generational change in Hawaii politics in next year’s election, but it could as likely turninto a last stand by old-guard Democrats that cements our political status quo for another decade.
Hawaii’s political eldershave been stingy about passing power to the young; two of our three previous U.S. senators died in office, and the third hung on until age88.
Generational issues will be most acute in the U.S. Senate race for the seat held by the late Daniel Inouye.
Gov. Neil Abercrombie named then-Lt. Gov. Brian Schatz, 40, to the seat over Inouye’s choice, 61-year-old U.S. Rep. Colleen Hanabusa, specifically to starta transfer of power to the next generation.
But Hanabusa will give voters the last say by challenging Schatz in next year’s Democratic primary.
Hanabusa is counting on support from the old-guard business and labor coalition that Inouye led, but it remains to be seen how much sway his organization still holds without Inouye’s personal clout.
Schatz is no tyro; he started in the Legislature the same year as Hanabusa and built a tight statewide organization by heading Barack Obama’s campaign here, serving as state Democratic chairman and running for lieutenant governor.
Age also isan issue in the contest for Hanabusa’s seat in the 1st Congressional District.
City Councilman Stanley Chang, 30, was the first to announce and may soon be followed by Councilman Ikaika Anderson, 35. They hope to emulate 31-year-old Tulsi Gabbard’s rise from the Council to Congress.
Younger state legislators such as Sen. Donovan Dela Cruz and Rep. K. Mark Takai have also floated their names, but the youngsters will likely get a stern test from the older generation.
Former Mayor Mufi Hannemann and former U.S. Rep. Ed Case might try again after losing their last three races for Congress.
It’s doubtful either could win a one-on-one Democratic primary against a credible opponent, but anything can happen in a free-for-all with a half-dozen or more candidates.
State Senate President Donna Mercado Kim is another possibility from the old guard.She’s among the most talented state and city legislators of her generation in terms of working the levers of power to achieve her aims, and voters could see it as just what our small state needs to have impact in Washington.
Abercrombie, 74, has little opposition, young or otherwise, so the 2014 governor’s race doesn’t seem ripe for generational change.
But it could set upLt. Gov. Shan Tsutsui, 41, as a force in 2018, though he’d likely face challenges from old-guarders such as Honolulu Mayor Kirk Caldwell.
In Hawaii politics the old will never gracefully yield power to the young; if the young want their turn, they’ll have to take it by force.
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Reach David Shapiro at volcanicash@gmail.com or blog.volcanicash.net.
