This must be nail-biting time for U.S. Rep. Mazie Hirono as she nears the first absentee balloting in her bid to succeed retiring U.S. Sen. Daniel Akaka.
With the muscle of senior U.S. Sen. Daniel Inouye behind her, a hefty bankroll and endorsements from key power players, Hirono spent most of the campaign cruising on what she thought was a comfortable lead over both her Democratic primary opponent, former U.S. Rep. Ed Case, and the likely Republican nominee, former Gov. Linda Lingle.
But recent indicators show the race tightening.
Case released internal polls showing him running neck-and-neck with Hirono, and Lingle claims her latest poll shows her slightly ahead of Hirono, the opponent she beat for governor in 2002. Both the Case and Lingle polls show Case running stronger than Hirono against Lingle in the general election.
Candidate polls can be taken with a grain of salt, and indeed, Hirono says her own polls show her ahead of both major opponents.
But it’s telling that the most recent poll she released on the matchup with Lingle showed an 11-point lead, compared with a 20-percentage point advantage she trumpeted over both Lingle and Case after a February poll conducted by Ward Research for the Star-Advertiser and Hawaii News Now.
Hirono acknowledged the tightening race by reversing course and giving Case the televised statewide debate he’s clamored for, now scheduled for July 26.
Hirono has been a notoriously weak closer in previous campaigns, with voters appearing to like her less the more they see.
In the 2002 Democratic primary for governor, her initial big lead over Case in the polls dwindled toa 1.4 percentage-point victory margin in the end. Lingle defeated Hirono handily in the general election.
In Hirono’s 2006 congressional race, she also started with a lead in Democratic primary polls, but ended up beating a fast-closing Colleen Hanabusa by only 844 votes.
With few big signature accomplishments in 28 years as a state legislator, lieutenant governor and congresswoman, Hirono campaigns on general themes such as "values," her loyal party-line voting record and her personal story as the daughter of a poor immigrant mother from Japan who came to Hawaii to escape an abusive marriage. These grow stale with repetition and raise concerns about her stature to do the job.
Hirono depicts herself as "a doer," citing her No. 1 ranking in the House for earmarks in 2010 as an example, but that’s more of the enigma.
According to Legistorm, only $10.4 million of the $341.4 million in earmarks credited to her from 2008 to 2010 were "solo" earmarks, whilethe big total was mostly amassed by co-sponsoring with other lawmakers — primarily the self-proclaimed earmark king Inouye, whowas credited with $600.4 million in solo pork during that period.
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Reach David Shapiro at volcanicash@gmail.com or blog.volcanicash.net.
