RENO, Nev. » If there’s such a thing as smart money it doesn’t gamble at all, right? Especially on the so-called sure thing.
(Today’s commercial rip-off: Your money isn’t smart. It doesn’t have a brain. But if it did it would tell you not to bet on football.)
Anyway, what are we to make of this crazy point spread that has dropped quicker than the temperature at sundown in the Sierra Nevada mountains?
Hawaii opened as a 14-point underdog for today’s tussle with the host Wolf Pack. As of Friday afternoon, however, you could only get one touchdown with your hot dog and beverage if picking the Rainbow Warriors.
Some serious, if not smart, money had to come in figuring the Warriors to at least make a game of it here, a place where they’ve won just once in six tries.
The betting line also did some crazy things prior to that lone UH win, in 2007 when Hawaii arrived in Reno at 9-0 and ranked 13th in the nation. Hawaii opened as a 71⁄2-point fave, but the big question was whether Colt Brennan would play and supposedly inside information had the favorite and underdog flip-flopping the night before the game.
You probably remember Dan Kelly hitting that 45-yard field goal twice and UH pulling it out at the end. The concussed Brennan did play, but just a couple of safe plays during the first drive; Tyler Graunke led the Warriors to the win.
Few factors can affect the point spread like a quarterback’s playing status. We often see games have no line at all because of a QB injury.
This time it’s Nevada slinger Cody Fajardo. I’m gonna go out on what looks like a pretty sturdy limb here: If Fajardo’s knee is good, Nevada beats UH for the third time with the junior behind center. If he’s out, or the knee is shaky, the Rainbow Warriors win their first game of the year and this becomes the turning point of Norm Chow’s coaching tenure.
A bit optimistic for a team as offensively challenged as Hawaii, certainly. But quarterback Taylor Graham and his mates on offense have had two weeks to improve after all those miscommunications, bad decisions, drops, missed blocks and third-down woes against USC and Oregon State. So have the rest of the Rainbow Warriors, and they are much healthier than Nevada, which spent last Saturday getting bus’ up at Florida State, physically and on the scoreboard.
Even if the UH offense doesn’t click, the defense might be capable of carrying the day if Hawaii wins the turnover battle.
Freshman defensive lineman Kennedy Tulimasealii is apparently ready for takeoff after that MCL sprain in camp, and if he’s as good as the hype he might shock Nevada’s battered offensive line that has not had a chance to see him on tape.
"I expect Kennedy to play a lot," defensive coordinator Thom Kaumeyer said.
If he’s chasing the Wolf Pack third-string quarterback (No. 2 is also on the long hurt list) rather than a healthy Fajardo … well, the folks who plunked all that dough down on Hawaii to create the seismic shift in the point spread can plan to visit the cashier.
