You can generally rely on history to get an idea of what may or may not happen in sports. So it seems sensible to count on precedent as a guide in the arena of college conference realignment. You might also be tempted to consider geography.

Don’t.

So much new ground is being broken, and so much new airspace is being traveled. Past decisions and occurrences don’t mean a whole lot as predictors, and apparently neither does the location of your university when San Diego State is willing to join the Big East.

Add to that handshakes and the old idea of "giving one’s word" becoming quaint practices that don’t really mean a deal is done. Now you’ve got an environment where the past is nowhere to look for clues, and the only constant is change.

That’s why what happened with Utah State is refreshing (although it won’t be for Hawaii if UH has to pay travel subsidies to Mountain West newbies USU and San Jose State; official word on that is expected early next week).

Remember two years ago when the Mountain West first came calling for Utah State? Before it asked Nevada, Fresno State or Hawaii? USU’s athletic director, Scott Barnes, turned down the offer because it had signed a loyalty pledge to the WAC. His mistake was thinking his colleagues would do the same.

"We were simply committed to uphold our agreement with fellow WAC members," Barnes said at the time. "We respectfully declined MWC interest and believed all WAC members would remain committed to our agreement."

But it was every school for itself, loyalty oaths be damned.

Now Utah State is finally in, and they’re celebrating, big-time, in Logan.

Even without BYU and Utah, Mountain West membership was long the Holy Grail for Utah State. For USU, it’s not just an escape from the sinking WAC. You know how Hawaii fans have pined for the Pac-10, now Pac-12, truly believing that’s where UH belongs? That’s how Utah State has felt about the MWC since its creation. It makes geographic and competitive sense for its improving program.

How did San Jose State get in? My best guess is all those TV sets and computer screens in the Silicon Valley that could conceivably be tuned to Spartans games have something to do with it. Being at best the third-most-popular college football team in your own city apparently doesn’t matter when your competition for membership is New Mexico State and Idaho.

Those two schools are out in the cold, but the Sun Belt might take them back. Former WAC commissioner Karl Benson now heads up that conference, making that a stronger possibility. Remember, Benson likes big footprints and wouldn’t be opposed to a league that spans from Boca Raton, Fla., to Moscow, Idaho. Heck, he’d probably snap up a school in that other Moscow if he could.

So, since the Mountain West has just 10 football teams for 2013, why didn’t it also add NMSU and Idaho?

There are reservations for two, but not those two.

"I think there is room at the table," MWC commissioner Craig Thompson said last week, when asked about the possibility of Boise State and San Diego State bouncing back.

Those schools moved too quickly to the Big East, lured by its BCS status, shaky as it was, as an automatic qualifier. But now, with a playoff for the national championship looming and negating that, regular-season football games at places like Storrs, Conn., and Piscataway, N.J., and the travel bills they generate appear much less attractive.

The impending playoff system is also why that big Mountain West and Conference USA alliance is stalled. A major motivator for that venture was trying to snag a BCS bid. That was unlikely even before the serious playoff talk.

Except for the fluke of Utah State, forget about words like loyalty and geography. For the mid-majors, conference realignment is about initials: TV and AQ. And AQ is fast fading from the picture.

Reach Dave Reardon at dreardon@staradvertiser.com or 529-4783.