Although he has been out of office for 10 years, Ben Cayetano remains a formidable presence in local politics, according to a new Hawaii Poll.
The former two-term governor, who last month declared his candidacy for Honolulu mayor, has the lead among three declared candidates for the job.
If the primary were held today, Cayetano would receive 44 percent of the vote, compared with 35 percent for incumbent Mayor Peter Carlisle. Former city Managing Director and Acting Mayor Kirk Caldwell is at 16 percent, according to the poll conducted by Ward Research Inc. for the Star-Advertiser and Hawaii News Now. Six percent were undecided or refused to answer.
"I’m pleased that I’m ahead, but on the other hand, I’ve never been ahead before," Cayetano, a 28-year political veteran, said Sunday as he opened his campaign headquarters by Lagoon Drive near the airport. "In all of my big races I’ve been behind, so I know that being ahead at this particular point doesn’t mean that much."
Cayetano entered the race last month as the only one opposed to the city’s $5.27 billion rail transit project.
Carlisle cast the campaign numbers as a reflection of a changing attitude on rail based on information spread by opponents. The new poll showed support for the rail project slipping to just 43 percent, compared with 49 percent in a poll conducted last May.
"I think we haven’t done as good a job as we should have in showing people exactly what all the accurate information is (on rail)," Carlisle said. "I think we need to stir up the pot a little bit and get people back to where they recognize how critical this is for the future, and if it requires change in the way we’re essentially getting the information out, then we need to go through that change."
The telephone poll of 549 registered voters on Oahu was conducted from Jan. 26 to Feb. 5 and has a margin of error of 4.2 percentage points.
Carlisle has been in office for only 17 months, after winning a special election in September 2010 to fill the final two years of the term vacated by Mufi Hannemann, who ran for governor. He won with a plurality among four major candidates, taking 39 percent. Caldwell finished second, with 35 percent, despite outspending Carlisle 2-to-1.
Because 2012 is a regular election, one can win outright in the August primary by securing 50 percent plus one vote. Otherwise, the top two vote-getters advance to the November general election.
Caldwell, who announced his campaign a week before Cayetano, said he feels it is still early, with the poll reflecting name recognition of "two very well-known career politicians."
"It is what it is," he said. "I’ve come from the private sector. I think that’s also a strength. … We have a campaign that’s going to raise my name ID as we go along.
"(After) one month I’m at 16 percent, according to your poll, I think that shows that we are off to a good start, and I think you’re going to continue to see that number climb."
Neal Milner, professor emeritus of political science at the University of Hawaii, said that while rail will be a significant campaign issue, Carlisle and Caldwell will have a tough fight against the well-known Cayetano.
"I don’t think this 45 percent is simply because Cayetano is the anti-rail candidate," Milner said. "I don’t think Cayetano is going to campaign simply on the basis of rail. He doesn’t have any reason to do that, because he’s got a lot of other assets to campaign on."
Although the race is nonpartisan, party loyalty is likely to play a role, with traditional Democrats having to choose between Cayetano and Caldwell. Carlisle, who had been associated with the state GOP, renounced all party ties prior to 2010.
Union voters, who tend to favor Democrats, also could be torn between their support for a rail candidate and Cayetano, a two-term Democratic governor. Unions generally support the rail project because of its potential to create jobs.
Cayetano polled well among all parties, garnering 39 percent among Democrats, 47 percent from Republicans and 59 percent of those who declared themselves independent. Cayetano also pulled in 44 percent of union voters, compared with 36 percent for Carlisle and 17 percent for Caldwell.
"What I sense for the first time is this is not an ideological battle — Democrats versus Republicans," Cayetano said. "On this one issue, people from all different backgrounds and political persuasions have come together and agreed on this one issue."
Cayetano also did well among ethnic groups, garnering 62 percent among Filipinos, 42 percent of Japanese and 40 percent of white voters. Carlisle also received 40 percent among white voters and captured the greatest portion of Hawaiian voters, 43 percent.
Carlisle polled well among younger and middle-age voters, 40 percent each, while older voters preferred Cayetano, 54 percent.
Roxanne Kinimaka, 56, a flight attendant from St. Louis Heights, is Filipino but said she could not back Cayetano because she is a strong supporter of the rail project. A lifelong Democrat, she is backing Caldwell.
"He has the experience, obviously, he has the contacts, he has an idea how this whole thing runs, so that would be the way I’d go," Kinimaka said.
Voters also were asked to rate Carlisle’s job performance as mayor.
Fifty-five percent said they approved, compared with 34 percent who disapproved and 11 percent that did not know or refused to answer. A Star-Advertiser/ Hawaii News Now poll in May showed his job approval rating at 64 percent.
Despite the drop, Carlisle said he was generally pleased with the rating.
"That’s not unusual," he said Friday before leaving for the Philippines on a mission to promote commerce with Hawaii.
"The longer you’re in an office, and there’s some people who have just a single issue — there are a lot of issues with the city, rail is just one of them, but that ends up ultimately giving people reason to think, ‘Aha, this is somebody who I don’t particularly want to vote for because he’s not doing what I want him to do.’
"If you find a mayor who does what everybody wants him to do, he’s somebody who’s not giving you a realistic assessment of the way the world works."
