Hawaii tourism could get a much-needed boost in the first quarter, with airlines projected to bring in nearly 89,000 more seats than a year ago.
The 3.8 percent increase in airline seats will mark the largest quarterly percentage gain in a year, according to data released Wednesday by the Hawaii Tourism Authority.
Increases are forecast in all of the state’s major markets except for the U.S. East, HTA said. The projection of more than 2.3 million first-quarter seats is based on airline schedules.
"It’s a significant increase because the previous quarters have been slow growth," said Daniel Nahoopii, director of tourism research for HTA.
Airline seats for last year’s fourth quarter are forecast to be up 1 percent from a year ago, but actual figures aren’t available yet. In the third quarter, airline seats were down 1 percent from the year-ago period while second-quarter capacity slipped 0.2 percent.
The largest gains for the first quarter of 2012 will come from outside the United States, with international air seats up 16.8 percent, HTA said.
Japan, the state’s largest international market, is expected to show a 5.2 percent increase in seat capacity. Capacity from Canada, the second-largest international market for Hawaii, is expected to rise 28.2 percent while Oceania (Australia and New Zealand), the state’s third-largest global market, is expected to rise 68.4 percent.
South Korea air seats are expected to rise 41.8 percent while China Eastern Airlines’ twice-weekly Shanghai-Honolulu flights will add seats from that country compared with a year ago when there was no scheduled service.
Hawaii’s largest market, the U.S. West, will expand air seats by 0.9 percent. But that will be more than offset by a 21.4 percent reduction in seats from the U.S. East that will leave overall seats from the U.S. down 1.8 percent.
"The increase in air seats is an indicator of strong demand for Hawaii, and the HTA anticipates continued year-over-year growth for Hawaii’s tourism economy," said HTA President and CEO Mike McCartney.
He said the state will get further national and international exposure this month from the NFL Pro Bowl; professional golf tournaments such as the Hyundai Tournament of Champions, the Mitsubishi Electric Championship at Hualalai and the Sony Open; and the Hawaiian Islands International Soccer Tournament in February.
If the trend continues, Hawaii could achieve a full-year record for visitor arrivals.
Hawaii, which had a record 7.6 million visitor arrivals in 2006, likely fell short in 2011. Hawaii had 6.6 million arrivals through the first 11 months of last year and HTA predicted arrivals would end 2011 at just under 7.5 million. Full-year data for 2011 haven’t been released yet.
Japan, which last March was dealing with the devastation from an earthquake and tsunami, has rebounded —and Hawaii should benefit from an 18.1 percent increase in seats from the Tokyo-Haneda route and a 62.4 percent increase in seats from Osaka. Hawaii also will get a boost from Delta Air Lines’ new flight from Fukuoka to Honolulu, which started last week. Hawaiian Airlines’ new service between Honolulu and Fukuoka is due to begin in April.
Seat capacity from Canada will get a lift from WestJet’s increased service from Vancouver, and by the airline adding additional service from Calgary and Edmonton.
Air Australia’s new service to Honolulu that began last month from both Brisbane and Melbourne will add 18 new flights a month from those cities. Coupled with an increase in Sydney flights from Hawaiian Airlines and JetStar, air seats from Australia are forecast to rise 78.3 percent.
Meanwhile, seats from South Korea are expected to grow due to increased service by Hawaiian Airlines and Korean Air.
The neighbor islands also will get a lift as seats to Kauai are expected to grow 25.8 percent due to direct service from Oakland and San Jose, Calif., by Hawaiian and Alaska Airlines, while seat capacity to Maui is due to rise 5.8 percent and Kona seat capacity is forecast to grow 4.4 percent. A new United Airlines flight launched last June from Los Angeles and San Francisco will bring in 16,328 seats into Hilo during the first quarter. It’s the first time in 28 years that Hilo has had a direct flight from Los Angeles.
