Even before completing her second term as governor last year and before U.S. Sen. Daniel Akaka decided to retire at the end of his current term, Linda Lingle was expected by many to run for Akaka’s seat. For the first time in decades, a ferocious Senate race is expected in next year’s general election, between Republican Lingle and Democratic primary opponent Mazie Hirono or Ed Case. The result will provide a litmus test of the state’s political leanings while determining which party bearer will represent Hawaii in the Senate for at least six years.
Lingle defeated Hirono for governor by a slim margin in 2002 but has not run statewide in a presidential election year. The Democratic nominee could ride the coattails of President Barack Obama, who was born here and continues to be popular in Hawaii. Hirono is completing her third term in the U.S. House representing the 2nd Congressional District, succeeding Case when he departed his House term for an ill-fated run against Akaka in 2006.
In announcing her candidacy on Tuesday, Lingle claimed to be a moderate who would not hesitate to depart from the GOP leadership on a given issue. Case has been a moderate on fiscal issues independent of national Democratic policies. Hirono is unequivocally a liberal in step with her party. Republican conservative John Carroll, a former state legislator, is a perennial but unsuccessful candidate.
Lingle has been quick to claim the importance of Hawaii being represented in the Senate by both parties. She points to the longtime friendship and strategic alliance between Inouye and the late Sen. Ted Stevens, R-Alaska, as proof that "having a senator from each party is the very best possible situation for us, because it doesn’t matter which party is in control." That is not a very good argument. If anything, the Inouye-Stevens coziness showed that Hawaii can benefit through alliances with senators from other states.
Hawaii voters must press the candidates to speak plainly about issues such as health care, tax reform, the federal budget deficit, military operations, energy, global warming and, above all, job creation in an economy that continues to plague the country.
The Democratic primary race is sure to be hostile. U.S. Sen. Daniel Inouye, still annoyed by Case’s run against Akaka without his permission, has not hidden his support of Hirono in next year’s battle. Earlier polls by the Democratic committee showed Hirono leading Lingle significantly, and the Star-Advertiser and Hawaii News Now showed both Hirono and Case ahead of Lingle.
But those early polls could change significantly during the next year. Lingle has been a formidable fundraiser, attracting $5.5 million and $6 million respectively in her 2002 and 2006 gubernatorial campaigns and setting a goal of as much as $10 million for this Senate race. With backing from the Democratic establishment, Hirono can be expected to draw large contributions from organized labor in both cash and footwork. Case faces a daunting task in competing for monetary support.
Lingle will need the money for a full-fledged campaign. As her governorship neared its end, one poll a year ago showed Lingle’s job approval rating at 44 percent, with 51 percent disapproving of the way she was handling Hawaii’s challenges. Her favorable rating was as low at 40 percent early last year, attributed by a pollster mainly to public anger over teacher furloughs.
Nonetheless, the candidates are making a fresh start. Engaged voters will have plenty of time and access in the year ahead to cast knowledgeable ballots that will be best for Hawaii.