Honolulu Star-Advertiser

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Local stock experts ride market rally

CORRECTION

» Local stock expert Norm Caris’ year-to-date return in the Star-Advertiser’s annual investment contest was 7 percent for a total portfolio value of $21,393.65. Some of Caris’ portfolio numbers are incorrect in the chart because it does not include his full share allocation for Hawaiian Holdings.

 

The Dow Jones industrial average is back at levels it hadn’t seen for five months.

After idling at 10,000 for years, the operative number is now 11,000, which the index breached earlier this month.

But some of Hawaii’s investment experts aren’t ready yet to jump on the bandwagon even after their hypothetical portfolios enjoyed a robust third quarter.

"Most stocks have been rallying as of late, but I don’t think investors should fixate on the direction of markets," said Barry Hyman, private client group vice president for the Maui branch of FIM Group Ltd. "They should instead focus on owning well-managed companies whose stocks are selling at prices that undervalue their financial worth."

Hyman’s portfolio was operating on all cylinders last quarter as it rose 22.8 percent in the Star-Advertiser’s ninth annual survey of best investment ideas. That put him in the black for the year with a nine-month return of 18.8 percent, boosting the value of his portfolio to $23,762.12. Hyman and the three other participants in the contest all began the year with a hypothetical $20,000.

2010 YEAR-END FORECASTS

The major indexes already have exceeded the 2010 year-end forecasts of Hawaii stock experts.

WHO DOW NASDAQ S&P 500
Norm Caris 10,000 2,000 1,050
Richard Dole 10,700 2,400 1,150
Barry Hyman 10,428.05 2,269.15 1,115.10
Dwight Melton 11,400 2,500 1,230
2009 close 10,428.05 2,269.15 1,115.10
Sept. 30 close 10,788.05 2,368.62 1,141.20
2010 consensus 10,632.01 2,292.29 1,136.28

Norm Caris, a Kauai resident and managing director for institutional sales for Caris and Co., was second with a 7 percent increase over the nine months to $21,393.65. Richard Dole, chief executive officer of Honolulu investment adviser Dole Capital LLC, was just behind with a 5.9 percent gain to $21,178.65. And Dwight Melton, co-founder of the Hawaii Stocks and Options Group, was last with a 1 percent gain to $20,202.85.

For the third quarter, Caris’ portfolio was up 5.8 percent, Dole’s portfolio rose 15.3 percent and Melton’s picks rocketed 23.5 percent.

Hyman and Dole are keeping their portfolio holdings the same for the final three months of the year.

"I will stick with my initial thought that the market would only show marginal improvement for the year of 3 percent to 6 percent, and we are just about there now following the September rally," Dole said.

The Dow rose 7.7 percent in September, its best September in 71 years.

Melton is cleaning house by picking up F5 Networks, which makes software to handle Internet traffic; online travel agency Priceline.com; online retailer Amazon.com; and online movie rental service Netflix.

Caris is substituting telecommunications equipment manufacturer Alcatel-Lucent for wireless equipment manufacturer Powerwave.

"Alcatel-Lucent is a great early-stage turnaround story," Caris said.

 

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