"Ghost Fleet: A Novel of the Next World War"
By P.W. Singer and August Cole
Houghton Mifflin Harcourt, $28
In "Ghost Fleet: A Novel of the Next World War," a new military techno-thriller by P.W. Singer and August Cole, war with China comes to Pearl Harbor the way it came with Japan: via sneak attack by a rising Asian giant that catches America napping.
The authors don’t spend time dwelling on sentimental irony: Both on Dec. 7, 1941, and just over a decade or so in the future (the year is never named), Hawaii is a strategic mid-Pacific buffer between Asia and the mainland United States. But in this account China — unlike Japan — sends troops ashore, invading Oahu and installing an occupation force.
The debut novel for Singer, a respected military strategist and consultant for the Defense Department, and Cole, a former defense industry reporter for The Wall Street Journal, is an entertaining and curious mix of military technology, evolved from current-day systems, and Tom Clancy potboiler, with bits of "Battleship" (minus the aliens) and "Red Dawn" thrown in to keep the pages turning.
With its many plausible predictions — and 400 research notes at the end of the book to support them — the 404-page novel is getting a lot of buzz inside and out of the military. Plaudits have come from the likes of retired Adm. James Stavridis, a former supreme allied commander of NATO, who is quoted on the book jacket praising Singer and Cole for their "frightening and pitch-perfect vision" of what a war between China and the U.S. could look like.
History suggests conflict between established and rising powers is inevitable. In "Ghost Fleet," China swings first, aided by some serious cyberhacking of the Pentagon and the annihilation of U.S. satellites, effectively blinding the American military to the enemy’s bold move.
The Pearl Harbor attack phase — using mines, tanks, missile fire from disguised Chinese freighters, helicopters and armed quadcopter drones — leaves at least nine Navy ships sinking and others taken over by boarding teams.
Tanks and military trucks rumble out of big "roll on, roll off" ships at Pier 29, near Sand Island, that purport to carry cars, and a KITV News chopper sent to cover what is believed to be a gas explosion at the harbor is blasted out of the sky by a drone missile.
At Honolulu Airport, Chinese troops pour out of Harmony Airways Airbus A380s. Schofield Barracks and the Marine Corps base at Kaneohe Bay are wiped out, and China quickly gains control of another prize: U.S. Pacific Command at Camp H.M. Smith.
Those are just some of the specific local details in the novel that bring the action home. Hidden Valley Estates and California Avenue in Wahiawa become a movement route for the North Shore Mujahideen rebels heading to Iliahi Elementary School. Another mission takes the NSM through the north fork of Kaukonahua Stream.
And a church at Kawaiahao Street and Mission Lane gets blown up on the order of a buffoonish Chinese general.
Russia, which is allied with China, attacks U.S. bases in Japan. American attack submarines are targeted using space-based tracking technology. Fearful of a nuclear exchange, China leaves U.S. ballistic missile subs and the U.S. mainland untouched. Most of America’s allies crumble in the face of the sudden and overwhelming aggression; Japan negotiates a "neutrality" deal.
The title, "Ghost Fleet," is a reference to the resurrection of inactive Navy ships at the former Mare Island Naval Shipyard north of San Francisco, including the USS Zumwalt, a futuristic destroyer that is scheduled to be delivered to the Navy later this year. The "Z" and its electromagnetic rail gun are heroes of the eventual U.S. counteroffensive.
Also making a cameo as a member of the ghost fleet is the Pearl Harbor cruiser USS Port Royal, which the Navy wants to mothball in real life. The infamous ship, which ran aground off Oahu in 2009, sustaining major damage and destroying a large swath of reef, redeems itself, in the novel at least, by playing a key role in ending the war with its ability to shoot down anti-ship missiles. And in this future war, hundreds of such missiles fly through the air.
Singer and Cole’s futuristic vision of warfare includes a military heavily reliant on "stims" — stimulants that provide energy, focus, mood control and pain relief — and a device akin to a souped-up Google Glass called "viz," which provides a whole new level of information awareness. Drones are in widespread use, including wedge-shaped F-40A Shrike attack jets, shipboard firefighting robot spiders and an assassin robot lobster used by Navy SEALs.
When some of America’s latest and greatest technology proves to be susceptible to Chinese computer-chip meddling, including the uber-expensive F-35 Joint Strike Fighter, it’s a good deal of less than state-of-the-art hardware that eventually gets thrown back at the enemy.
Readers who question whether China would raise a hand to its largest trading partner will find themselves chastised by Capt. Jamie Simmons, the Zumwalt’s eventual commander and a central character in "Ghost Fleet." Before the flames of war are ignited, Simmons warns that money ties don’t necessarily bind.
"Trade is just trade," he says to another naval officer, pointing out that Germany was Britain’s biggest trading partner before World War I and that the U.S. was Japan’s before Pearl Harbor.
The novel pingpongs at frenetic pace around the globe, from the depths of the Mariana Trench to low Earth orbit, where the Chinese space station Tiangong-3 harbors a satellite- killing laser. The overstuffed plot includes a global economic crash resulting from the detonation of a radioactive "dirty bomb" in Dhahran, Saudi Arabia, which causes the House of Saud to fall and oil prices to skyrocket to $290 a barrel. China’s corrupt Communist Party loses control and is replaced by the "Directorate" of business magnates and military leaders who pull the trigger on World War III.
Chinese Vice Adm. Wang Xiaoqian tells his country’s leaders that the U.S. "Congress threatens energy sanctions at the slightest whim," and quotes a line from fabled ancient military strategist Sun Tzu: "On terrain from which there is no way out, take the battle to the enemy."
The book skips a beat in time from the attack on Hawaii to the post-invasion phase when the islands have become a "Special Administrative Zone" garrisoned by Chinese troops. The Moana Surfrider on Waikiki Beach is a hangout for Chinese military personnel, and civilians are sometimes treated brutally.
Along with the "Muj" rebels, whose members include surviving American military members and a Turtle Bay golf pro, there’s an eccentric Australian biotech billionaire with creative ideas about removing the threat of China’s space-based laser, and local girl Carrie Shin, a hotel worker who takes sinister revenge on some of the Chinese occupiers after her military fiance is killed in the fighting.
With such colorful supporting characters and subplots, it’s clear Singer and Cole aren’t aiming only at the Pentagon crowd and foreign-policy wonks; they want to entertain and inform a wide range of readers. At the same time, it’s not much of a stretch to buy into their frightening scenarios.
As Singer notes in an interview with Popular Science, China is planning to have 415 ships and submarines in its navy by 2030 (the U.S. Navy now has 273).
"What will this mean for the changing balance of power in the Pacific? What is that world like?" he asks.
It’s an interesting question that splits the "panda huggers" and "dragon slayers" in the U.S. military who differ over whether China is economic friend, military foe or both.
"Ghost Fleet" falters in some of its character development and with one particularly outlandish plotline. But Singer and Cole present a clear and troubling vision of where man, machine and geopolitics can take us, making "Ghost Fleet" well worth the read.
Excerpted from "Ghost Fleet: A Novel of the Next World War" by P.W. Singer and August Cole. Copyright 2015 by P.W. Singer and August Cole. Used by permission of Eamon Dolan Books/Houghton Mifflin Harcourt Publishing Co. All rights reserved.
Just then Jakob heard another bang on the pier. It was the ramp coming down off the Hildy Manor, another RO/RO tied up beyond the Golden Wave. None of this sh- – was authorized. They didn’t have the paperwork, and the lot was already going to be jammed. There was no way he’d be able to fit the cars from not one but two ships into the waiting lot, let alone a bunch of tanks.
He held the phone at arm’s length, cursing his stupid job again, this time because he couldn’t afford some viz glasses.
"Jakob Sanders at Pier Twenty-Nine in Honolulu," he said, staring into the pinhole camera. "Got an unauthorized delivery here as you can see," Sanders said. "Some trucks, Geelys, and check this out, tanks! Chinese tanks. Not sure what the drill is today, but we’re about to go find out. Bet you never saw anything like this in real life. Me either. Stay tuned."
Sanders set his phone on the windowsill in his shack so that it was recording the scene and then marched with a bold step toward the Golden Wave. Dumb-ass sailors. They’d just have to stay on the pier until it all got sorted out.
By the time Sanders had made his way to the ramp that connected the pier to the parking lot, he could literally feel the power of the tanks’ engines in his chest. The tanks slowly moved forward, a few feet at a time, testing the ramp.
A flash of movement and an earsplitting clang made him whip his head around. Big metal panels were being tossed over the side of the Evening Resolve — a 480-foot cargo container ship registered in Dalian — and landing on the pier. Then a miniature air force began to assemble in formation above the Evening Resolve. To Sanders, the quadcopters looked like those spy drones the paparazzi used to buzz any Hollywood star dumb enough to still have an outdoor wedding. The Directorate’s electric V1000 drone actually shared a heritage with the commercial systems, but its agility and stealth had made it the platform of choice for covert Chinese "risk-elimination" strikes in Africa and the former Republic of Indonesia.
The tanks throttled their engines again and regained Sanders’s attention. He raised his right hand in the universal sign to stop.
"Halt! You are entering private property. I need you to stop that vehicle immediately."
The lead tank slowed and then stopped at the bottom of the ramp, just ten feet away. Sanders looked down and raised his voice, more confident now that he had established who was in charge.
"Good. Now, I don’t know what’s going on but you need to turn that vehicle around and get back on the ship … immediately."
The engine belched smoke, and the tank suddenly bounded forward.
Seen on the screen of his phone, it looked like a symbolic act of bravery. In actuality, all Jakob could think about was running, running as fast as he could, to get out of the sixty-ton beast’s path. But his feet just wouldn’t move.
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