The future doesn’t look bright for the Thirty Meter Telescope (TMT). The project promises advancements in technology and science but has been beleaguered since inception. TMT supporters recently received more bad news. An external panel of experts published sobering insights, in a new report commissioned by the National Science Foundation (NSF) to evaluate the United States Extremely Large Telescope Program (US-ELT), including a proposal to fund development of the TMT in either Hawaii or the Canary Islands and Giant Magellan Telescope (GMT) in Chile’s Atacama Desert.

The independent review of the US-ELT was conducted to assist NSF in deciding to fund either project, both, or neither. In a Feb. 22, 2024 meeting, NSF approved a $1.6 billion spending ceiling for the program which, at that time, considered resources might only be directed to a single observatory.

In the anxiously awaited report, published Dec. 9, 2024, the panel doesn’t posit a recommendation to fund either TMT or GMT. Instead, it emphasizes congressional support.

Congress allocates federal funds annually for the NSF’s budget, which supports myriad projects and programs; the US-ELT is one of them. The new report makes plain that investment at this level will gut the NSF budget without additional resources.

An award of $1.6 billion for TMT wouldn’t be enough to cover the estimated total cost of $3.9 billion. Claiming $700 million in its coffers and $2 billion in total commitments, TMT is still $300 million short. However, a grant of $1.6 billion would fill the gap needed to complete the GMT in Chile.

While advocates for TMT lament disappointment, those striving for GMT are more optimistic.

Would it be fiscally responsible for NSF to grant $1.6 billion to TMT when the project would need more capital and GMT is financially practicable? On the heels of an 8% reduction in the NSF budget from 2023 to 2024 under the Biden administration, reporting indicates that budget could be cut further by an imminent Trump administration.

In addition to the funding hitch, questions arise about the project’s partnership. The report confirms China has withdrawn from TMT. Corporate partnership, agreed upon in the Thirty Meter International Observatory Corporation (TIO) in 2014, appeared airtight with great praise for the international collaboration across public and private sectors. Now, an unraveling seems underway. The People’s Republic of China “amicably” withdrew from the project in early 2024.

Cognizant of sunk costs, the former partner perceivably secured its cordial exit by paying a termination fee stipulated in the TIO’s Master Agreement; the exact amount is unknown. China’s willingness to divest from TMT puts tremendous pressure on remaining partners.

With the U.S., Japan, India and Canada licking their wounds, the question lingers: Who might withdraw next?

On April 26, 2024, the United Nations Committee on the Elimination of Racial Discrimination (UNCERD) issued an Early Warning and Urgent Action letter to Canada with concerns that, through its partnership and corporate and astronomical support in TMT, Canada is violating the rights of Native Hawaiians. An Indigenous movement opposing TMT at Mauna Kea, a sacred mountain to Native Hawaiians, is subtly recognized in the NSF report as an impediment for site access, of which the panel claims TMT’s risk mitigation strategy is “inadequate.”

In a July 14, 2023 petition submitted to UNCERD by KAHEA: The Hawaiian-Environmental Alliance, Ziibiing Lab, and the Transnational Law and Racial Justice Network, Canada and all other partners are called to “cease funding and fully divest support from the TMT project on Maunakea.”

Although Hawaii County Mayor Kimo Alameda recently pledged his support for the “2024 version” of the project, it may be time for the promise of TMT’s first light to dim and fade away.