Hawaii’s new-vehicle market remains stuck in neutral, and sales are forecast to decline for the third consecutive year.

Heightened anxiety surrounding the election and geopolitical unrest have affected consumer confidence and kept some new-vehicle purchasers on the sidelines, according to a third-quarter report released recently from Hawaii Auto Outlook.

New-vehicle registrations are now forecast to decline 2.4% to 45,500 this year after dropping 2.5% to 46,603 in 2023 and sinking 12.5% to 47,780 in 2022. On a positive note, however, Hawaii Auto Outlook projects sales to rise 3.7% to 47,200 in 2025.

“Longer-term determinants are positive,” Jeffrey Foltz, editor of Hawaii Auto Outlook, wrote in the report, which is produced for the Hawaii Automobile Dealers Association. “Pent-up demand from five years of below-average sales is significant and affordability will continue to improve, but the sales recovery will likely be gradual. A small increase is predicted in 2025.”

Through the first nine months of this year, state sales were down 4.8% to 33,993 from 35,708 in the year-earlier period. Sales were down on each of the four major islands: off 18.9% on Kauai, down 10.4% on Hawaii island, weaker by 2.8% on Oahu and down 2.4% on Maui. Nationally, sales through the first nine months rose 2.2%.

Overall for the third quarter, new-vehicle registrations in Hawaii inched down 0.2% to 11,314 from 11,341.

“The state market showed some signs of improvement as the year has progressed, however,” Foltz said. “After declining 7% in the first half of this year versus a year earlier, new-vehicle registrations were unchanged in the third quarter and have a chance to improve over weak results in the fourth quarter of ’23.”

New-vehicle registrations can be representative of auto sales, but the two don’t always align because a buyer can purchase a vehicle one month and register it in another. The data is based on county Department of Motor Vehicles registrations.

Toyota was the bestselling brand through the first nine months with a 28.2% market share, followed by Honda at 12.3%, Tesla at 8.1%, Ford at 6.5% and Nissan at 6.0%.

The market share for the top-selling models in the state through the first nine months were To­yota Tacoma, 7.1%; Tesla Model Y, 5.6%; Toyota 4Runner, 4.7%; Toyota RAV4, 4.3%; and To­yota Corolla, 3.5%.

Alternative powertrain vehicles continued to gain in popularity as the state continues its transition away from fossil fuels.

Battery electric vehicle registrations in the state had a 14.1% market share through the first nine months versus 13.1% a year earlier. Tesla accounted for 57.5% of the state BEV market through the first nine months. Ford and BMW were second and third, respectively, but their combined share was just 14.2%.

“Higher incentives have given a boost to Hawaii BEV sales,” Foltz said.

Hybrid vehicles encompassed 10.7% of the market share in the first nine months of the year, compared with 7.9% in the year-earlier time frame. Toyota and Honda accounted for 67% of the hybrid vehicle market.

Plug-in hybrids’ market share was 1.9%, compared with 1.5%.

Light trucks — which include vans, SUVs and pickups — maintained their large lead over cars with a 77.2% market share versus 22.8% for cars. Consumers continue to opt for larger vehicles because of more visibility, additional room for storage and stable gas prices.