I’ve written in this space about how much I enjoy researching and writing the Hawaii Baseball Report that appears in these pages each Sunday during baseball season.
But as much as I enjoy watching Hawaii-connected baseball players such as Isiah Kiner-Falefa, Cade Smith and Joey Cantillo (struck out five Yankees last week!, as one reader made sure to email us) rise through the minor leagues to fulfill their big league dreams, I like just as much seeing football players from UH and/or Hawaii high schools make it in the NFL. If nothing else, it gives me some players to root for after my team (the Patriots) and my fantasy teams fall out of contention.
Like many of you, I’m eager to see how good Tua Tagovailoa can become, whether he’ll lead the Miami Dolphins to a Super Bowl. I’d love to see Marcus Mariota get another shot starting at quarterback. And that’s just the QBs. Here’s a look at some of the storylines I’m most excited about heading into the 2024 season as an NFL fan who holds a special place in his heart for players from the Aloha State:
>> What will Tua do next?
Tagovailoa led the NFL in passing yards last season at age 25 with 4,624, but doubters point to his poor record against quality teams (1-5 last season against playoff qualifiers) and lack of playoff success. To those folks, I say … “calm down.”
The Saint Louis graduate made it through a full season without missing a game to injury for the first time and we saw what he’s capable of. His interceptions went up a bit, with his TD-to-INT ratio dropping to 2-to-1 from 3-to-1. As a result, his QB rating dropped slightly from his league-leading 105.5 in 2022, but it was still 101.1, fourth in the league.
Overall, he made great progress last season, just as he did the season before. At the same age, Peyton Manning was 0-2 in the playoffs, including a home loss. Tagovailoa is 0-1, and that one game was on the road in minus-4-degree temperature against a team (the Chiefs) on the verge of a championship repeat. The playoff wins will come and he’ll do better against good teams.
Expectations are so high for quarterbacks entering the league now that fans (and some media) don’t give them time to grow, to improve. I mentioned Manning before. He regressed in his age 25 season, with barely as many touchdowns as he had picks. He had the rap of a stats guy who couldn’t win, mainly because he kept having to face the GOAT, Tom Brady. Tua may have that for a few years going against Patrick Mahomes of the Chiefs, but just as Manning eventually won two Super Bowls, I believe Tua will at least get to one. Winning Super Bowls is tough. It takes a great team, not just a great passer.
>> Can Andrei Iosivas and/or Roman Wilson become impact receivers as Ashley Lelie was?
Both have clear paths to becoming contributors this season though Wilson, a Saint Louis grad who won a national championship with Michigan last season, suffered a setback when he sprained his ankle in camp last month.
Iosivas, a Punahou product drafted by the Bengals out of Princeton last year, has the opportunity to step into Tyler Boyd’s role after the veteran left for the Titans this offseason. Mostly starting the past six years, Boyd averaged 73 catches, 862 yards and 4.7 TDs per season. With No. 2 receiver Tee Higgins playing on the franchise tag and No. 1 receiver JaMarr Chase due for a big contract, Iosivas could win a bigger role down the line if he earns the coaches’ confidence this season.
Wilson was reportedly turning heads in camp before injuring his ankle, but he’ll need to make it back soon to have an impact this season.
>> How will the Patriots’ coaching change affect linebacker Jahlani Tavai?
The former UH standout found a home playing for Bill Belichick in New England after falling out of favor with the Lions, who drafted him 43rd overall in 2019. His snap count percentage reached a career-best 74% last season. New England made it clear quickly that Tavai was still seen as part of the Pats’ future by signing him to a three-year extension, and the new head coach is Jerod Mayo, himself a former stud linebacker under Belichick who was Tavai’s position coach the past three seasons. So all signs point up for Tavai, who topped 100 total tackles last season for the first time. He could be due for a breakout year.
Two other linebackers I’m eager to follow are rookies Marist Liufau (Punahou/Notre Dame) and Darius Muasau (Mililani/UH/UCLA). Liufau is already on line one of the Cowboys’ depth chart, Muasau has always been a personal favorite of mine, perhaps because I used to live in Mililani. (He’s the same age as my son, so maybe they played baseball against each other?) Just a quiet, hard-working kid who makes plays. I hated to see him leave UH for UCLA, but I understood, and it looks like it worked out well for him. Can’t wait to see if he can become a starter with the Giants.
Not a linebacker but another defender who could break out this season is Chargers safety Alohi Gilman (Kahuku/Notre Dame). Or maybe he already broke out last season? Gilman became a full-time starter last season and made 73 total tackles, earning a spot on Pro Football Focus’ All-Breakout Team, but NFL on CBS also named him as the Chargers player most likely to break out in 2024. PFF rated him the seventh best safety in the league last season. Can he go to even higher heights under new head coach Jim Harbaugh? I’m excited to find out.
