In a sign of a likely dismal turnout when all of the ballots are counted, only about 198,000 people across Hawaii have voted ahead of Saturday’s primary election — a considerably lower proportion of total votes when compared with the 2022 and 2020 primaries.
Once again, Hawaii voters already have shown an overwhelming preference for mail-in ballots — over 196,000 votes compared with only 1,800 people who have voted in person so far.
But overall, the latest voter numbers ahead of Saturday compared with the final 2022 and 2020 primary election results mean “it’s going to be significantly lower on Saturday, there’s no question in my mind,” said Colin Moore, who teaches public policy at the University of Hawaii and serves as an associate professor at the University of Hawaii Economic Resource Organization.
“It looks like, just judging from the trend of the ballots that are coming in, we’ll be down significantly from both 2022 and 2020,” Moore said. “I don’t think anyone is surprised to hear that.”
In the 2020 August primary, 407,190 votes were cast, and most — 401,716 — came in through mail-in ballots.
The numbers dropped to 340,159 total votes in the 2022 primary, with 330,837 cast through mail-in ballots.
So the low number of votes cast so far ahead of Saturday night’s 7 p.m. voting deadline means Hawaii will continue its typical lackluster enthusiasm for voting, Moore said.
“It is going to be lower,” he said.
In Hawaii, where politics are dominated by the Democratic Party, primary elections typically provide the most drama each election year as Democrats go head to head before November, when they take on challengers who also win their party primaries, if there are challengers.
But this year there are no competitive statewide races, no election for governor or lieutenant governor, three county prosecutors who face zero competition — and will be elected outright Saturday — and a Honolulu mayor’s race that could see Mayor Rick Blangiardi win outright if he receives 50% of the Honolulu vote plus one.
The most likely drama on Saturday will focus on the race for Hawaii County mayor, where incumbent Mitch Roth faces a surprisingly stiff challenge; and a rematch between House Speaker Scott Saiki and his political nemesis, former Board of Education member Kim Coco Iwamoto, for the House seat that represents parts of downtown, Ala Moana and Kakaako.
In 2022, Saiki beat Iwamoto by only 161 votes — with 2,680 votes compared with 2,519 for Iwamoto.
But the outcome Saturday also will dictate whether Saiki retains control of the House or an Iwamoto victory ushers in new House leadership.
“Other than the Big Island and House 25, there aren’t any high-level races where there is a lot of money spent to get out the vote,” Moore said. “So for voters there’s less at stake. And as a result, turnout is lower.”
Low voter turnout on Oahu on Saturday also makes it likely that Blangiardi will cruise to victory without having to face a runoff in November against the second- place vote getter, Moore said.
“I expect Blangiardi will win outright on Saturday,” Moore said.
Not even a resurgence in Democratic enthusiasm for the newly minted presidential ticket of Vice President Kamala Harris and her running mate, Minnesota Gov. Tim Walz, will translate into votes Saturday, when neither Harris nor Walz will be on the ballot, Moore said.
Asked whether Harris and Walz have fired up the Democratic base in Hawaii, Moore said, “they have” and will likely result in a November turnaround in voter turnout.
But for now, on Saturday, “Hawaii’s still going to be a low- voter-turnout state,” Moore said.
In the state Legislature, 12 of the 25 state Senate seats and all 51 House seats are up on Saturday.
But three representatives face no opposition and are assured of reelection Saturday: Justin Woodson (D, Kahului-Puunene), Gene Ward (R, Hawaii Kai-Kalama Valley) and Della Au Belatti (D, Makiki-Punchbowl).
On the Senate side, Henry Aquino (D, Pearl City-Waipahu-West Loch) and Jarrett Keohokalole (D, Kaneohe-Kailua) are also running unopposed and assured of reelection Saturday.
Three of Hawaii’s four congressional delegates are up for reelection, but none faces a heavyweight challenge.
The other House primary race generating attention pits state Rep. Trish La Chica (D, Waipio- Mililani) against political newcomer Ken Inouye, son of the late U.S. Sen. Daniel K. Inouye.
The two Democrats represent different demographics in Central Oahu.
Inouye — the 60-year-old assistant to the vice chancellor at the University of Hawaii West Oahu — is sometimes joined on the campaign trail by his 14-year-old daughter, a freshman at Mililani High School.
La Chica, a 37-year-old mother of a 7-year-old son and 4-year-old daughter, represents younger working families in Central Oahu and serves as vice chair of the House Education Committee.
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Voter service centers
Voter service centers provide accessible in-person voting, same-day voter registration and collection of voted ballots.
City and County of Honolulu
>> Honolulu Hale courtyard, 530 S. King St. (8 a.m.-4:30 p.m. today, 7 a.m.- 7 p.m. Saturday)
>> Kapolei Hale, conference rooms A, B and C, 1000 Uluohia St. (8 a.m.-4:30 p.m. today, 7 a.m.-7 p.m. Saturday)
>> George Fred Wright Wahiawa District Park, ceramics room, 1129 Kilani Ave. (11 a.m.- 6:30 p.m. today)
Places of deposit
Places of deposit are established for voters to drop off their voted mail ballot packet to be collected by the county Elections Division.
City and County of Honolulu
Open daily in accordance with park hours through 7 p.m. Saturday.
>> Asing Community Park, 91-1450 Renton Road, Ewa Beach
>> Bill Balfour Jr. Waipahu District Park, 94-230 Paiwa St.
>> Connie Chun Aliamanu Neighborhood Park, 4259 Lawehana St.
>> Hauula Civic Center, 54-010 Kukuna Road
>> Hawaii Kai Park and Ride, 240 Keahole St.
>> Kailua District Park, 21 S. Kainalu Drive
>> Kalihi Valley District Park, 1911 Kamehameha IV Road
>> Kaneohe District Park, 45-660 Keaahala Road
>> Kanewai Community Park, 2695 Dole St.
>> Mililani Park and Ride, 95-1101 Ukuwai St.
>> Neal S. Blaisdell Park, 98-319 Kamehameha Highway, Aiea
>> Sunset Beach Recreation Center, 59-540 Kamehameha Highway, Haleiwa
>> Waialae Iki Neighborhood Park, 4838 Kalanianaole Highway
>> Waianae District Park, 85-601 Farrington Highway
>> Honolulu Hale, 530 S. King St.
>> Kapolei Hale, 1000 Uluohia St.
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